Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:27 GMT 18. Říjen 2009

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Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)
The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!
Pink Snow
The Snowy Poconos (robin57)
Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo
The Snowy Poconos
Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)
Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center

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Quoting StormW:


Do you own a life jacket? LOL!
A couple LOL.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Little colder here this a.m.

48.0F Wind Chill 43.0F


Good Morning Storm. Didn't see ya sneak in.
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Quoting StormW:


H85 and H70 is an abbreviation for Height...H85= 850mb...H70= 700mb.

This increase in vorticity indicates a surface low may be trying to develop. Right now, a low is just above the surface at around 5,000ft. May be trying to develop a surface reflection.
Ok, thanks. I kinda had it figured out but wasn't sure. Just checked the weather stations in a couple different locations on Grand Cayman and we have had between 3.92" and 5.85" of rain since around 1 am. It is coming down pretty good.
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Quoting Weather456:


There is a base on the island



Yes, there is a US military base. Our flight landed there en route from Hawaii to Majuro (Marshall
Islands). Planes refuel there but you are not allowed to deplane.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Yep,
It's evening here.
Also, as of September 23, the sea surface temperature is 0.3 degrees Celsius lower than normal.


That got me to thinking about our water temps. They were insanely hot over the summer. But now not so much. Had to find a buoy Ike didn't knock out last year. Lol. I would assume our tropics threat is over for the year. Knocking on wood here. :)

Station RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX

Water Temperature (WTMP): 67.3 °F
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BBL,

Tropical Update

Tropical depression may form later this week
Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting StormW:
Been a big increase in vorticity at H85 and H70 with the Caribbean area. Vorticity at these levels was not present last night.



Meaning ?
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Quoting jipmg:


You have that front right on you..
I know and I love it. We really need the rain.
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1080. jipmg
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning to you too. Cooler here too, down to 70 which is chilly for us. Lots of rain too. Almost 2" since around 1 am. It's great !


You have that front right on you..
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Little colder here this a.m.

48.0F Wind Chill 43.0F
Good morning to you too. Cooler here too, down to 70 which is chilly for us. Lots of rain too. Almost 2" since around 1 am. It's great !
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


As in Korea? I've never been to that part of the world. Don't know if or how El Nino affects you over there. But here it has been giving us lows in the 80's. Which I admit was a little extreme for October. But man, its hard to get out of a warm bed on a cold morning! Lol. Don't know how I ever lived in Germany.

Yep,
It's evening here.
Also, as of September 23, the sea surface temperature is 0.3 degrees Celsius lower than normal.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Thats' similar to our place, Seoul.
Weather: Clear
Current temperature: 10.3*C==> 50.54*F
Dew Point: 2.8*C (37.04*F)
Wind: From the WNW at 10.5 mph (4.7 m/s)
Humidity: 60%
Feels Like: 8.1*C (46.6*F)


As in Korea? I've never been to that part of the world. Don't know if or how El Nino affects you over there. But here it has been giving us lows in the 80's. Which I admit was a little extreme for October. But man, its hard to get out of a warm bed on a cold morning! Lol. Don't know how I ever lived in Germany.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Does anyone live in Johnston Atoll?


There is a base on the island

Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good Morning All. I've had enough of winter thank you very much! Frickin' freezin' in here.

Updated: 12 min 20 sec ago
Clear
51 F
Clear
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 47 F
Wind: 6 mph from the East

Lol. I've gotten spoiled in my old age. :)

Thats' similar to our place, Seoul.
Weather: Clear
Current temperature: 10.3*C==> 50.54*F
Dew Point: 2.8*C (37.04*F)
Wind: From the WNW at 10.5 mph (4.7 m/s)
Humidity: 60%
Feels Like: 8.1*C (46.6*F)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting adb42:
Tropical depression 03C in the Central Pacific appears to be a rarity, according to CPHC. It developed out of the monsoon trough south of Hawaii. Is expected to be a hurricane by Wednesday, passing by Johnston Atoll by then.



Does anyone live in Johnston Atoll?
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MOrning everyone.

73 outside right now. Big improvement over Saturday a.m., though still above our normal average low. Looks like the SW Car is continuing to cook.

Will look in later to see what's what.

Have a great one!
Member Since: 25-10-05 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
1070. WxLogic
Heading out... and Good morning to those as just jumped in. :)
Member Since: 14-08-08 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
1069. jipmg
alright so the models are jumping on this thing again... wow
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Good Morning

Tropical Update

Tropical depression may form later this week
Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good Morning All. I've had enough of winter thank you very much! Frickin' freezin' in here.

Updated: 12 min 20 sec ago
Clear
51 °F
Clear
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the East

Lol. I've gotten spoiled in my old age. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1066. adb42
Tropical depression 03C in the Central Pacific appears to be a rarity, according to CPHC. It developed out of the monsoon trough south of Hawaii. Is expected to be a hurricane by Wednesday, passing by Johnston Atoll by then.

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1065. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't know if anything will form but East End, Grand Cayman has had 1.21" of rain since around 1 am and pressure at 1009, winds gusting to 36 mph. Kinda chilly for us too at 70.


Interesting...
Member Since: 14-08-08 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...

Sure ECMWF now has NOGAPS, and CMC support. Now 00z ECMWF has a more believable system (on that is more like a breed between a TD to weak TS). Should be interesting if trend continues on these 3 models.
Don't know if anything will form but East End, Grand Cayman has had 1.21" of rain since around 1 am and pressure at 1009, winds gusting to 36 mph. Kinda chilly for us too at 70.
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1063. aquak9
g'morning wu bloggers.

54º in Jax, FL.

Let the games begin? a whole week or more of this? Eck.
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1062. WxLogic
Good morning...

Sure ECMWF now has NOGAPS, and CMC support. Now 00z ECMWF has a more believable system (on that is more like a breed between a TD to weak TS). Should be interesting if trend continues on these 3 models.
Member Since: 14-08-08 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Morning Ike and All,

I see we now have model support pretty much across the board for something to spin up. Going to be a long, slow process from the way it looks.

Let the games begin!
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1060. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning , Ike
Chilly in the Panhandle this morning?


42.3 outside.
Member Since: 09-06-05 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning , Ike
Chilly in the Panhandle this morning?
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1058. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO GULF OF
HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT NW THROUGH WED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 84W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WWD BUT A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA DRIFTING N TO NW TUE THROUGH
THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL ENTER SE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THEN MOVE W ACROSS SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MON
THROUGH WED AND REACH SW CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT.
Member Since: 09-06-05 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1057. ackee
Iam dissapointed that NHC has not say a thing about the CARRB system should have been in yellow by now
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1056. ackee
see most of model comeing a board developing TS in the SW carrb seem like jamaica caymans and cuba could be in for some rain the least then FL
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the carribean looks prettier and prettier each time I look at the infrared does anyone think will have a invest or anything marked by Friday
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1054. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
China Meteorological Administration

** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY LUPIT 0920 (0920) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC
00HR 19.0N 133.2E 910HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 260KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 19.7N 129.4E 910HPA 65M/S (130 kts)
P+48HR 19.3N 125.5E 920HPA 60M/S (120 kts)
P+72HR 17.9N 120.7E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P+96HR 17.4N 117.9E 935HPA 50M/S= (100 kts)
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The latest QuikSCAT isn't showing anything at the surface, except a broad area of convergence. If this thing does spin up, it could become a large system, I suspect.

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anyway night
Quoting reedzone:
I'm out for the night, the NHC is not paying attention to the Carribean, there should have been at least a yellow circle on the TWO. We'll see what the morning brings. Interesting week ahead.


Nothing has really persisted there until now, they got this one covered, I am sure they are seeing the model agreement

If things continue to persist we could see it mention on the TWO as early as 8am
I'm out for the night, the NHC is not paying attention to the Carribean, there should have been at least a yellow circle on the TWO. We'll see what the morning brings. Interesting week ahead.
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Target = Florida - 00Z EURO
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1047. Grothar
Bye everybody. I hope to be back soon. Stay safe. Keep me informed 101
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00Z ECMWF brings the system north over Cuba and into SW florida as a tropical storm
1045. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
Grother, it's good to see you on here again, hope things are better for you. I've been watching the model runs. When the EURO shows something, it means business. Get ready for Tropical Storm Ida next week, it's my gut feeling. Interests in the Islands and Eastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the developing situation.


Thanks reed. As always. Take care, I got to get to work.
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1044. Grothar
Quoting Meteorology101:
hey bruned, it is huh?


I don't get it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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