Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:27 GMT 18. Říjen 2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.

Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)

The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!

The Snowy Poconos (robin57)

Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo

Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)

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51. BurnedAfterPosting 16:03 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Weather456: I am not against development, I was wondering why the other models were not showing development. I know you aren't, was just stating that the GFS did show a strong storm in the same area around the same time about a week ago in its long range model run around the 13th of the month

52. AussieStorm 16:03 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting lawntonlookers: Anyone that once to watch the launch of the DMP can open the following link in their favorite video player. Launch of DSMP F-18 What time is the launch Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

53. MiamiHurricanes09 16:03 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Definitely a sight to behold. Member Since: 02-09-09 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

54. WxLogic 16:04 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Drakoen: The cold area from the approaching cold front will help add instability and vorticity to the southern Caribbean. The cimss 850mb vorticity already shows a maximum where the 1008mb low pressure center is located near 80W. It sure definitely increase lapse rates (LR) on the Carib with those warm waters still down there. Member Since: 14-08-08 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

55. Cavin Rawlins 16:04 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: I know you aren't, was just stating that the GFS did show a strong storm in the same area around the same time about a week ago in its long range model run around the 13th of the month Yea I remembered. Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

56. BurnedAfterPosting 16:05 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
LOL Oh well Drak I guess we are wishcasters LMFAO We are looking at absolutely nothing factual to support the possibility of development LMAO We are grasping for straws Drak LOL That is without a doubt the dumbest thing I have ever heard on this blog LOL but I needed a good laugh this morning LMAO

57. CybrTeddy 16:05 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Ida replaced this monster: My life was forever changed by Isabel when it hit me up in Virgina, I underestimated it because it was 'only' a Category 2. Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

58. Drakoen 16:05 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting WxLogic: It sure definitely increase lapse rates (LR) on the Carib with those warm waters still down there. Good point Member Since: 28-10-06 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

59. CybrTeddy 16:07 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
post 50. not even going to bother to remark.. straight to the ignore list, we don't need childish insults. Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

60. PcolaDan 16:07 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: Could FSU be affected by this, all? Probably not, but possibly U of M. USF FAU and FIU Member Since: 22-08-08 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

62. MiamiHurricanes09 16:08 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
This area around central America is becoming better organized with the vorticity: Convection is also increasing: I think this AOI has about a 40% because as seen below it has what seems to be an anticyclone: Member Since: 02-09-09 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

63. BurnedAfterPosting 16:08 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: post 50. not even going to bother to remark.. straight to the ignore list, we don't need childish insults. Yea that post just shows the kind of "MET" that person is, someone that is here just to stir things up; you are right, time to ignore him and move on.

64. AussieStorm 16:08 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: What time is the launch Where is the launch from? Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

65. IKE 16:09 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting PcolaDan: Probably not, but possibly U of M. USF FAU and FIU Does Bastardi say anything about the western Caribbean? Member Since: 09-06-05 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

66. Cavin Rawlins 16:10 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: This area around central America is becoming better organized with the vorticity: Convection is also increasing: I think this AOI has about a 40% because as seen below it has what seems to be an anticyclone: That is about the same percentage I give it over the next 3-5 days Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

67. BurnedAfterPosting 16:11 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Not that it is any of your business BUT I do live in Central Florida but I will not be in town the next 2 weeks, so I wont be wishing any storms my way so I can experience them also my parents are very worried about another storm hitting their place because an inspector just found that their roof is unstable and they don't have the money to fix it. So why don't you just save the wishcasting crap and learn a bit about people before you antagonize.

68. PcolaDan 16:11 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting IKE: Does Bastardi say anything about the western Caribbean? Havent checked him but hmmmm. Member Since: 22-08-08 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

69. scottsvb 16:13 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
There is really nothing to discuss until something is close to forming or until @ least the GFS comes along.. maybe 12z run may 0z run maybe never! Member Since: 22-01-06 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

70. BahaHurican 16:13 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
44. AtlantaMET 11:59 AM EDT on October 18, 2009 1. 2 is not most of us. 2. Taking the discussion towards personalities and away from a most interesting set of conditions in the WCar. I have to admit today we have has some reasonable discussion for a change. I'm really enjoying that instead of the other stuff. Member Since: 25-10-05 Posts: 19 Comments: 17663

71. BurnedAfterPosting 16:14 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: 44. AtlantaMET 11:59 AM EDT on October 18, 2009 1. 2 is not most of us. 2. Taking the discussion towards personalities and away from a most interesting set of conditions in the WCar. I have to admit today we have has some reasonable discussion for a change. I'm really enjoying that instead of the other stuff. Actually 2 is ZERO cuz not one person on here is wishcasting; he is just here to antagonize and nothing more

72. CybrTeddy 16:15 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting scottsvb: There is really nothing to discuss until something is close to forming or until @ least the GFS comes along.. maybe 12z run may 0z run maybe never! Indeed, constant model support is key, but the ECMWF has preformed remarkably this year with genesis and track.. greased Bill dead on when all were pointing West, ECMWF was the outlier saying NW-W. Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

73. HIEXPRESS 16:15 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
THE KMLB WSR-88D IS OFFLINE DUE A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. Nothing worse than having a weak hurricane named after you. Right Ernesto? Rick Member Since: 13-10-05 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

74. Drakoen 16:17 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
I can't understand why the GFS is so aggressive and sharp with that upper level trough. It's shear forecast is inconsistent. It doesn't know how to handle the upper level high coming from the EPAC. Yesterdays runs had the high advecting eastward now the GFS wants to cut-off an upper level low and have it retrograde westward. Member Since: 28-10-06 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

76. CybrTeddy 16:18 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Defiantly a start, but long ways to go. Needs consistent convection and something at the surface. Remember this is a slow process but if conditions are right it can get going. Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

77. BahaHurican 16:18 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Could that easy reach across Panama into those hot EPac waters be one of the reasons why things spin up in this area early and late in the season? Hadn't really thought about that before... Member Since: 25-10-05 Posts: 19 Comments: 17663

79. cchsweatherman 16:22 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Good morning all from cloudy and cool South Florida! Really enjoying this weather as some serious cold air advection has taken place with temperatures throughout South Florida only in the middle 60s right now. Looks like many places in Florida will break records for the lowest temperatures for daytime highs and overnight for lows. When I came on here yesterday evening to check on the blog, I must admit that Hurricane Rick left me speechless in how impressive the storm looked. In most cases with even the strongest storms, I could find flaws, but Hurricane Rick had no flaws last night. Its the second most impressive storm I've ever seen in my lifetime behind Hurricane Wilma. I'm really hoping that wind shear and cooler SSTs really start kicking in and bringing this storm down in strength before it impacts Baja California since they had already received a nasty blow from a hurricane earlier in the season (can't remember the name right now). As far as the talk of the Wunderground town, the Caribbean could definitely be worth watching over the next week. Now that fronts are making their way through Florida and into the extreme NW Caribbean and a strong MJO pulse will be entering the region soon, it seems that the ingredients are there for possible tropical cyclone development down in the Western Caribbean over the coming couple weeks. But even though most computer models continue to insist on this scenario and the conditions appear right for something to happen, its important to not become too concerned and to just continue to keep an eye on the region since time and time again this season, it seems things just haven't been able to get together fully even with even better model support than we have now and seemingly good conditions. Member Since: 14-04-07 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

80. beell 16:22 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Ok, Poll Time. a) a wave or surface low along a surface trough boundary moving NNE/NE b) a Hurricane moving into FL c) Something else Member Since: 11-09-07 Posts: 125 Comments: 12883

81. Cavin Rawlins 16:23 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
The Atlantic was over just after Henri. I love how the tropics keep spinning up storms to the surprise of the season enders. The season was also ended right after Fred, lol. I love the tropics. Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

83. Drakoen 16:23 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting beell: Ok, Poll Time. a) a wave or surface low along a surface trough boundary moving NNE/NE b) a Hurricane moving into FL c) Something else That's quite the poll lol Member Since: 28-10-06 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

84. scottsvb 16:25 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Still nothing on the GFS out past 120hrs... this is why we tell the kids or the adults who wishcast(like kids) to be patient and wait for good support and dont trust 1 model or until that 1 model has something about to develop. Member Since: 22-01-06 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

85. AussieStorm 16:25 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: Where is the launch from? We have a successful launch Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 5 Comments: 13347

86. beell 16:25 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Drakoen: I can't understand why the GFS is so aggressive and sharp with that upper level trough. It's shear forecast is inconsistent. It doesn't know how to handle the upper level high coming from the EPAC. Yesterdays runs had the high advecting eastward now the GFS wants to cut-off an upper level low and have it retrograde westward. Some amount of upper trough has been consistent in this model, Drak imho. Today we even get a hint of a sharp upper shear axis in place for a bit. Added-I believe you mentioned it yesterday? Member Since: 11-09-07 Posts: 125 Comments: 12883

88. cchsweatherman 16:26 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Drakoen: I can't understand why the GFS is so aggressive and sharp with that upper level trough. It's shear forecast is inconsistent. It doesn't know how to handle the upper level high coming from the EPAC. Yesterdays runs had the high advecting eastward now the GFS wants to cut-off an upper level low and have it retrograde westward. Seems like that has been and continues to be the story this season with the computer models, especially the GFS. The computer models for the most part really haven't been handling upper level conditions well throughout the season. Member Since: 14-04-07 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

89. beell 16:27 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Drakoen: That's quite the poll lol Ok, I'll put you down for "c", lol Member Since: 11-09-07 Posts: 125 Comments: 12883

91. Tropicsweatherpr 16:28 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Weather456: The Atlantic was over just after Henri. I love how the tropics keep spinning up storms to the surprise of the season enders. The season was also ended right after Fred, lol. I love the tropics. Agree 100%.That is why the season ends on November 30th. Member Since: 29-04-09 Posts: 64 Comments: 8199

92. Drakoen 16:28 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting beell: Some amount of upper trough has been consistent in this model, Drak imho. Today we even get a hint of a sharp upper shear axis in place for a bit. Added-I believe you mentioned it yesterday? Yes I did mention that. It's just a matter of how deep the axis stretches makes a huge difference between development and none at all. Member Since: 28-10-06 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

94. Cavin Rawlins 16:29 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
This blog cannot be peaceful for one day? Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

96. scottsvb 16:30 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Drakoen: That's quite the poll lol Member Since: 22-01-06 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

97. BurnedAfterPosting 16:31 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Weather456: This blog cannot be peaceful for one day? Not with AtlantaMet around insulting people it can't He just called Baha stupid; he really should be banned I think

99. Cavin Rawlins 16:33 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: Not with AtlantaMet around insulting people it can't He just called Baha stupid; he really should be banned I think I think in times like these, storms threatening Florida, its best to be in lurk mode. Too much fighting anticipated this week. Member Since: 24-07-05 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

100. BurnedAfterPosting 16:34 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
Quoting Weather456: I think in times like these, storms strengthening Florida, its best to be in lurk mode. Too much fighting anticipated this week. Amen to that 456, too many people coming out to call others wishcasters regardless of what the facts show. It is of course a wait and see situation, we all know that, but its hard to ignore the ECMWF regardless of what other models say

101. xcool 16:35 GMT 18. Říjen 2009
GFS SUCK!!!! THIS YEAR Member Since: 26-09-09 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

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