Heavy snow, high winds, flooding for the Northeast; destructive Winter Storm Xynthia nears Europe
A major winter storm continues to pound the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. today, as a powerful 979 mb low pressure system stalled out over Long Island Sound brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to the region. The storm dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. One location in Vermont, West Halifax, received over three feet of snow--38.5". Heavy rains in excess of three inches has fallen over large sections of Northeast, including 8.38" at Scarborough, Maine. Rivers have spilled out of their banks over sections of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and southwestern Maine, resulting in many road closures. Sustained winds of 25 - 40 mph have been common all along the coast, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph common in the Appalachian Mountains. The prize for most extreme weather goes to New Hampshire's Mount Washington. At midnight, the Mount Washington Observatory reported sustained winds of 104 mph, gusting to 123, visibility zero in moderate snow, and a temperature of 21°F.
Fourth greatest snow for New York City, and still accumulating
The storm has dumped 20.8" of snow on New York City's Central Park as of 1pm EST today, making it the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. With another 1 - 3 inches likely for the city today, the storm should rank as the 3rd largest snowfall on record before it's over. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park should now read:
26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.8" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920
Figure 1. Total radar-estimated precipitation from this week's storm over Maine. A large swath of 4+ inches of precipitation has fallen on a wet snowpack, creating flooding problems.
Today's storm will linger and slowly weaken through Saturday, bringing an additional 6+ inches of snow over portions of southeast New York, western Connecticut, and western Massachusetts. The strong winds will die down by tonight, aiding the efforts of utility repair crews struggling to keep up with all the power outages created by combination of high winds and wet, heavy snow.
Next storm
The active storm pattern isn't going to change over the few weeks for the Eastern U.S. The next potential snowstorm will be Tuesday, and will affect the Southeast U.S. Although it is too early to be confident of the amount or type of precipitation this storm will bring, snow will be a possibility for northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and portions of North and South Carolina.
Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia headed for Europe
A large 1000 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is over the eastern Atlantic, and is expected to rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and western France. The models are coming into better agreement now, and have shifted their position for the storm's maximum intensity eastwards. France is now in the bullseye, and the storm is predicted to be at maximum intensity on Sunday morning when it will be positioned over northwestern France. The storm's powerful cold front will sweep ashore south of the low, bringing sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph (80 - 95 km/hr) to the coast of France's Bay of Biscay, with gusts over hurricane force (120 km/hr). The central pressure at that time will range from 966 mb to 972 mb, according to two of our top computer models, the ECMWF and GFS. This is about the same intensify as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Meteo-France has put out a bulletin warning of the possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts on Sunday, and is recommending that residents limit travel and avoid the threatened areas if the forecasts remains on track. While the storm is not expected to be as intense when it moves over Portugal and northern Spain on Saturday, these regions will still receive tropical storm-force wind with gusts to hurricane force. The Spanish Meteorological Agency is warning of the possibility of 100 mph (160 km/hr) wind gusts over northern Spain on Saturday. The damage total from this weekend's storm over all of Europe will probably exceed $1 billion, making it the globe's second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2010. The first was the back-to-back blizzards over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region earlier this month, which are being blamed for over $2 billion in insured losses, according to Eqecat, a risk management firm.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Xynthia.
Figure 3. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/26/10 run of the GFS model for 00 GMT Sunday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 972 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from France. Image was generated using our wundermap for France with the "model" layer turned on.
Links to follow:
La Palma, Canary Islands was reporting sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 45 mph today.
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar
Meteored.com Spanish weather forum
Portugese weather forum
French weather forum
Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The damage from last month's catastrophic earthquake in Haiti has now been estimated at $7.2 billion to $13.2 billion, according to a study released last week by the Inter-American Development Bank. This figure is 1 - 2 times the $7 billion GDP of Haiti estimated by the World Bank. In the face of such a massive disaster, every little bit of help is needed, and Portlight.org has been doing a fantastic job getting relief into Haiti for those who need it most. Below is a link to a 3-minute long piece E News did on Portlight's efforts in Haiti:
Other press:
Much-Needed Rehab Equipment Obtained through Portlight.org, from the Real Medicine Foundation Blog.
Bill Ranic's Blog
The Portlight disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, and please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate.
Next post
I'll have a post this weekend.
Jeff Masters
Tree Collapse - Beech Court (
thesspa)
Reader Comments
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Link
Anyway, night all.
Sweet dreams.
Im anticipating plenty to discuss,ponder,and wunder at as we slide toward the beginning,that will come all too fast.
Everyone from the Caribbean to the Coast's of Texas to Maine should take the grace of time and develop or review ones own Hurricane plan.
Sleep well.
With all due respect I kinda wish them all to the Fishy's if you know what I mean....
good luck :)
STILL GOT TWO MORE WEEKS OF COOLING LEFT TO GO !
hello anybody there?
wow
Date-Time
* Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 06:34:17 UTC
* Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 03:34:17 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 35.826°S, 72.669°W
Depth 59.4 km (36.9 miles)
Region OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE
Distances 100 km (60 miles) NNW of Chillan, Chile
100 km (65 miles) WSW of Talca, Chile
115 km (75 miles) NNE of Concepcion, Chile
320 km (200 miles) SW of SANTIAGO, Chile
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.6 km (6.6 miles); depth +/- 40 km (24.9 miles)
Parameters NST=220, Nph=220, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.09 sec, Gp= 36°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID us2010tfan
it's 4am there, they will all be sleeping.
yeah
link
Calabozos
Callaqui
Cerro Azul
Copahue
Descabezado Grande
Laguna del Maule
these seem to be the closest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanoes_in_Chile
BREAKING NEWS — A massive magnitude-8.5 earthquake struck near Concepcion, Chile, early on Saturday, the USGS reported, shaking buildings and causing blackouts in parts of the capital of Santiago.
A Reuters witness reported shaking buildings and loss of electricity in Santiago, which is north of the epicenter.
The earthquake struck 56 miles northeast of Concepcion at a depth of 34 miles at 3:34 a.m./1:34 EST/0643 GMT. The quake was initially reported at a magnitude of 8.3.
The Reuters witness reported a very strong shaking lasted for 10 to 30 seconds.
A tsunami warning was issued early on Saturday for Chile and Peru and a tsunami watch was issued for Ecuador, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reported.
The center said: "An earthquake of this size has the potential to generate a destructive tsunami that can strike coastlines near the epicenter within minutes and more distant coastlines within hours.
Link
have a goodnight everyone, and please check out my blog, thanks!
IDY68009
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
MEDIA:
NO USE OF STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL (SEWS)
PLEASE BROADCAST THIS INFORMATION IF REFERRING TO THE EARTHQUAKE IN NEWS
REPORTS.
********************************************************************************
NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 6:21 PM EDT on
Saturday 27 February 2010
********************************************************************************
SUMMARY:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.5 has occurred at 5:34 PM EDT on Saturday
27 February 2010 near NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE.
THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.
For further details visit the Bureau web site www.bom.gov.au.
No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.
********************************************************************************
DETAILS:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.5 has occurred at 5:34 PM EDT on Saturday
27 February 2010 near NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE (latitude 35.720S longitude
72.680W ).
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE TALCAHUANO 36.7S 73.1W 0729Z 27 FEB
VALPARAISO 33.0S 71.6W 0739Z 27 FEB
COQUIMBO 29.9S 71.3W 0801Z 27 FEB
CORRAL 39.8S 73.5W 0810Z 27 FEB
CALDERA 27.1S 70.8W 0821Z 27 FEB
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0844Z 27 FEB
IQUIQUE 20.2S 70.1W 0911Z 27 FEB
ARICA 18.5S 70.3W 0929Z 27 FEB
GOLFO DE PENAS 47.1S 74.9W 0934Z 27 FEB
PUERTO MONTT 41.5S 73.0W 1052Z 27 FEB
EASTER IS. 27.1S 109.4W 1205Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ARENAS 53.2S 70.9W 1213Z 27 FEB
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 72.0W 0936Z 27 FEB
SAN JUAN 15.3S 75.2W 0952Z 27 FEB
LA PUNTA 12.1S 77.2W 1045Z 27 FEB
PIMENTAL 6.9S 80.0W 1114Z 27 FEB
TALARA 4.6S 81.5W 1127Z 27 FEB
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 78.8W 1132Z 27 FEB
ECUADOR LA LIBERTAD 2.2S 81.2W 1202Z 27 FEB
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 79.8W 1234Z 27 FEB
BALTRA IS. 0.5S 90.3W 1313Z 27 FEB
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 78.9W 1253Z 27 FEB
BAHIA SOLANO 6.3N 77.4W 1327Z 27 FEB
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 77.2W 1340Z 27 FEB
ANTARCTICA THURSTON IS. 72.0S 100.0W 1312Z 27 FEB
PANAMA PUERTO PINA 7.4N 78.1W 1331Z 27 FEB
PUNTA MALA 7.5N 79.9W 1334Z 27 FEB
PUNTA BURICA 8.0N 82.8W 1340Z 27 FEB
COSTA RICA CABO MATAPALO 8.4N 83.3W 1344Z 27 FEB
27-FEB-2010 06:52:35 -34.74 -72.64 6.2 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
27-FEB-2010 06:34:17 -35.83 -72.67 8.8 59.4 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
The quake's epicenter was located near the city of Concepcion, 212 miles (341 kilometers) from the capital of Santiago. It struck at 3:34 a.m. (1:34 a.m. ET).
Concepcion is Chile's second largest city with a population of 200,000.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami warning for Chile and Peru. The center recorded a tsunami wave as high as 9 feet.
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/waveforms/helicorder/OAT_EHZ_CI_--_00_22221212.html
I grabbed a 7.0 yesterday from Ryukyu Islands offa Japan, if ya'll are looking at IRIS then you can see them both.
Holy hoppin' terraformin' tectonics, that's some MAJOR action in less than 24 hours, a 7.0 and an 8.8.
Last greater than 8? 1963, Alaska?
The east coast of Australia from Sydney up to just north of Brisbane is on alert. This buoy is showing a change.
IDY68028
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
MEDIA:
No use of the Standard Emergency Warning Signal (SEWS)
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE AND FREQUENT BROADCAST
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI WARNING NUMBER 2 FOR NEW SOUTH WALES
Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at
9:44 PM EDT on Saturday 27 February 2010
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT
********************************************************************************
SUMMARY:
Tsunami warning for the marine environment for NEW SOUTH WALES.
Threatened areas extend from Broken Bay to Point Danger.
Possibility of dangerous waves, strong ocean currents and foreshore flooding
for several hours from 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday.
Sea level observations HAVE confirmed a tsunami has been generated.
For further details visit the Bureau web site www.bom.gov.au.
Next update due by 11:14 PM EDT on Saturday 27 February 2010
********************************************************************************
DETAILS:
Tsunami waves are more powerful than the same size beach waves, with the first
wave not always the largest. First tsunami effects are expected as follows:
Crowdy Head after 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday
Coffs Harbour after 09:00 am (EDT) Sunday
Byron Bay after 09:15 am (EDT) Sunday
Tweed Heads after 09:15 am (EST) Sunday
Do not go to the coast to watch the tsunami. Check that your neighbours have
received this advice.
Boats in harbours, estuaries or shallow coastal water should return to shore.
Secure your boat and move away from the waterfront. Vessels already at sea
should stay offshore in deep water until further advised.
Do not go to the coast to watch the tsunami, as there is the possibility of
dangerous, localised flooding of the immediate foreshore.
For emergency assistance, call NEW SOUTH WALES STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE on 132
500
Maps showing the affected areas are on the Bureau web site
www.bom.gov.au/tsunami. For a repeat of this warning call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300
878 6264).
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI SOURCE:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.8 occurred at 5:34 PM EDT on Saturday 27
February 2010 near THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE (latitude 35.320S longitude
72.930W )
********************************************************************************
The JATWC is operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience
Australia
______________________________________________________________________________________________
This quake has been followed by 6 aftershocks ranging from 6.9 to 5.6
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