92L drenches Puerto Rico, and could develop into a TD by Wednesday
Invest 92L continues its steady march to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean. The storm has brought up to 4 inches of rain to Puerto Rico today, and will spread heavy rains of up to four inches over the Dominican Republic tonight and Haiti on Sunday. Rains of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake. There is no evidence of a surface circulation apparent on visible satellite imagery or surface observations. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry, continental air from North America in the storm's environment. With wind shear at 30 - 40 knots today and expected to be 20 - 30 knots on Sunday, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.
92L could develop by Wednesday
Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, though it appears that much of the disturbance's energy is tracking almost due west, and thus may escape disruption by these islands. If 92L manages to hold together through the high wind shear, dry air, and mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it may enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots in the region near central Cuba. Some modest moistening of the atmosphere may also occur at that time, according to the latest SHIPS model run. The latest 12Z GFS model run indicates re-organization of 92L may occur by Wednesday over the waters near the Lower Florida Keys, but the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not show this. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to become a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico next week are significant, and I give 92L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a possible tropical depression to form in the central Caribbean on Friday.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next four days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have an offshore northerly component through Sunday, and an easterly component beginning on Monday. The resulting ocean currents should keep the oil near the coast from Alabama to Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for the period Monday - Wednesday show only weak flow, which would result in little transport of oil from its current location. The long range 5+ day outlook is uncertain, as we will have to see what Invest 92L does once it reaches the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. If the GFS model is correct, we can expect 92L to bring strong easterly winds to the oil spill location late next week, pushing the oil towards Louisiana.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Friday, June 18, 2010.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have an update on Sunday or Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Slowly but surely, there is light at the end of the tunnel for 92L.
Hopefully it's wrong.
12Z GFS @ 156 hours...
* From: NewsCore
* June 20, 2010 1:37AM
BP said its primary vessel capturing oil from the massive Gulf of Mexico spill has been shut down due to a blocked vent, but restart was expected later today after a lightning storm leaves the area.
The Discoverer Enterprise, a ship siphoning 15,000 to 18,000 barrels of oil per day directly from the containment cap atop the ruptured well, shut down yesterdat due to a blocked flame arrester, BP spokesman Robert Wine said.
The device is intended to stop the crude from combusting by extinguishing the flame.
But TSArlene was an outlier; HurricaneSeason really fired up with TSBret 17days later.
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Bret began spinning on 28June2005
18Jun2010
27Jun2005
18June2010
27Jun2005
18June2010
"[BritishPetroleum]'s well in the Gulf of Mexico is gushing[...]from 35,000 to 60,000 barrels a day, Energy Secretary Stephen Chu and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said today [15June2010]..."
From which we can deduce*that:
The old pre-cut flow rate was between 29,166to50,000barrels per day.
The old pre-cut minimum spill rate was 29,166barrels per day.
The new post-cut minimum spill rate is 20,000barrels per day.
(Oil collected from the BlowoutPreventer is subtracted from the new minimum flow rate.)
The ExxonValdez spilled 11million gallons. At the old pre-cut minimum spill rate (1,225,000gallons per day), DeepwaterHorizon had been spilling one ExxonValdez per 8days23hours30minutes37seconds.
By 7:18pm,4June2010, the DeepwaterHorizon had spilled a minimum of FIVE ExxonValdezes.
In the 12days4hours17minutes between 7:18pm,4June and 11:35pm,16June, the DeepwaterHorizon spill had increased to a minimum of SIX ExxonValdezes.
At the new post-cut minimum spill rate (840,000gallons per day), there will be one more ExxonValdez added to the spill every 13days2hours17minutes9seconds thereafter, until new ships arrive to increase the amount collected.
* For a fuller explanation of how I calculated those minimums, see blog1508post7.
Not a big storm but bad effects, it appears likely.
what if 92L overe takes per 93L
* From: AFP
* June 19, 2010 11:47PM
MORE than a million people living along rivers in China's south have been evacuated with water rising to dangerous levels as torrential rains left at least 88 dead.
Chinese officials earlier said 90 people had been killed in the floods.
The government said more than 1.4 million residents living on river banks and in low-lying areas had to move, according to the official China Daily.
Zhang Zhitong, deputy director of the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, said China's second-largest waterway, the Pearl River, which crosses the south, had breached warning marks on Thursday.
Torrential and virtually unrelenting rain has battered large swathes of China's south since Sunday, triggering devastating floods and landslides that have killed 88 people.
The official Xinhua news agency reported that, in the southeastern province of Fujian alone, 31 people had died in rain-triggered landslides.
Photos on China News Service showed people in Fujian's Gutian county wearing lifejackets and wading deep in water through flooded streets.
State television broadcast images of a bridge in another Fujian town collapsing as water raged underneath it, and in neighbouring Guangdong province, houses were shown almost entirely submerged.
Meanwhile, diggers in nearby Jiangxi were seen clearing roads of huge rocks caused by landslides and workers hung off poles, working at restoring electricity for residents.
Rescue workers in another town in Jiangxi were seen throwing ropes across a raging river to help people cross to the other side, as they also fetched children stuck in a kindergarten and put them in a small boat.
According to the latest statement from the nation's civil affairs ministry, 48 people were still missing in eight provinces and regions in the south and the cost of the disaster had now reached 11 billion yuan ($1.84 billion).
A total of 155,000 houses had been damaged - almost half of which had collapsed - and more than 500,000 hectares of crops had been affected.
Authorities have raised the level of their emergency response as rescue and flood-prevention work continues.
The National Meteorological Centre warned on Saturday of more rainstorms to come, a day after it issued an orange storm alert - just one level lower than the nation's most serious red alert.
"There will be heavy rain over the next three days, and flood-control work will face enormous challenges," it said in a statement, adding that some of the rainfall in the south was up to three times greater than normal years.
It is 92L, and the low actually comes off western cuba. The trend is not good
93L?
i said per 93L wish mean we could see 93L with in the next few days or sooner
A woman has died after she was hit by a falling tree at Woori Yallock, east of Melbourne, as heavy storms swept across the state.
An Ambulance Victoria spokesman says the woman was hit by a tree around 11:00am (AEST) and died at the scene.
The wild weather has brought down trees and cut power to some areas.
Justin Kibell from the State Emergency Service (SES) says they have had 300 calls for help so far today after receiving about 100 calls overnight.
"These requests have been around trees that have been blown down on to roads or on to property, on to cars," he said.
"We've also had a number of roofs that have been dislodged with roofing materials blown off."
About 10,000 homes across the state lost power as the storm front swept through.
Most of the outages were caused by trees falling on to power lines.
About 4,000 homes lost power around Ballarat, and about 6,000 homes in western, northern and central Victoria were blacked out.
Authorities are warning people to stay away from fallen power lines.
In Melbourne, a light pole blown across the Tullamarine Freeway near the Western Ring Road forced the closure of two in-bound lanes.
In north-east Victoria, a roof has been torn off a house at Tatura and other buildings in the area have been damaged by the strong winds.
Several major roads in the region are blocked by trees, including the Hume Freeway near Violet Town.
Thousands of homes and businesses are without power.
There are reports of snow at Gordon and snow flurries have fallen in heavy squalls central Melbourne.
Ballarat mayor Judy Verlin was driving in the storm and says it got so dark, many motorists have switched their lights on.
The storms follow high winds in some areas overnight, which did not cause the damage previously predicted.
Wind gusts of up to 143 kilometres were recorded at Mount Hotham and some trees were brought down in higher gusts.
With 100 kilometre per hour winds and heavy rain forecast police are advising motorists to take extra care on the roads.
Dean Zabrieszach from VicRoads says drivers should slow down while conditions remain hazardous.
"We're asking all drivers to leave plenty of distance between themselves and the car in front," he said.
"Drive a little bit more slowly, you don't have to drive at the speed limit, and it's important that people turn their lights on so people can see."
- ABC
They meant 94L. Are the T-Storms brewing in the Western Panhandle yet? Mobile is quiet.....for the moment.
we have not even had 93L yet
San Juan, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
San Juan, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI
Yeah, I am surprised that there is no mention of the disturbance in the SW Caribbean today. Great anticyclone developing over it as the persistent TUTT we've been talking about is lifting northward and out of the way.
However, this might move westward into Central Amreica into the E-pac, becoming next E-pac system.
You mean pre-93L not per 93L, right?
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
It wouldn't go straight to a TS with a new low and it is going to take a few days for it to reorganize when it gets to better conditions
I think a Wednesday timeframe is a good one
Change in Heights maybe..
Could be.
Dunno.
Humor is not one of your attributes, is it?.....LOL
The model data on this page was valid as of: Saturday, June 19, 2010 12:00 Z (Zulu | GMT | UTC)
Late Cycle and Other Previous Models were valid: Saturday, June 19, 2010 6:00 Z
Our new model system is now in live alpha testing. You can download the new Google Earth file here for the Atlantic.
The system generates model data for the East Pacific and the Central Pacific too. For more information on the system, click here.
Most likely not. Shear won't be lower til after then.
Morning Levi. :)
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