Tomas significantly weaker; damage very heavy on St. Lucia and neighboring islands
Hurricane Tomas dealt a punishing blow to the Caribbean island of St. Lucia, with the neighboring islands of St. Vincent, Dominica, and Barbados also suffering heavy damage. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds early this morning. The St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. A state of emergency has been declared on the island, and there are island-wide power outages on both St. Lucia and Dominica. Heavy flooding affected St. Lucia, washing out many bridges, and the airport is closed due to flooding. Damage to structures is considerable, with many roofs gone, and damage reported to hospitals, schools, and businesses.
Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: Caribbean Hurricane Network.
Tomas significantly weakens
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft arrived at Tomas at 2pm this afternoon, and found a much weaker storm. The 2pm EDT center fix found that the pressure has risen to 994 mb, and the strongest surface winds were barely Category 1 hurricane strength, 74 mph. The aircraft found the the eyewall had mostly collapsed. Satellite loops of Tomas also show a significant degradation in the appearance of the storm in recent hours. The storm is highly asymmetric with very little heavy thunderstorm activity or upper level outflow on the west side, and the hurricane has only one prominent spiral band, on the east side. Wind shear is a high 20 knots due to strong upper level west-southwest winds, and these winds are driving dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere into Tomas' west side, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas taken at 10:30am EDT Saturday October 30, as the storm began lashing the Lesser Antilles. At the time, Tomas was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west-northwest will weaken by Tuesday, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. This will result in Tomas slowing from its current 9 mph forward speed to 5 mph by Tuesday. By Thursday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the north. The exact timing and location of this turn is still very uncertain. The computer model solutions from the latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) runs include a strike on Haiti on Friday (GFS and GFDL models), a strike on the Dominican Republic on Friday (NOGAPS model), a strike on Haiti on Saturday (UKMET model), a strike on Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Thursday (Canadian), or a strike on Puerto Rico on Friday (HWRF).
Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear is forecast to remain in the high range, 20 - 25 knots, through Monday night, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. Tomas will struggle with the shear and the dry air to its west through Tuesday, and I expect it will weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and remain a tropical storm until Tuesday, when the shear finally relents. At that point, re-intensification is likely, though with the storm's inner core gone, I expect it will take Tomas two days before it can re-establish a complete eyewall. Hindering that process will be the slow motion of the storm, which will allow cooler waters from the depths upwell to the surface and cool the SSTs. Still, the waters are very warm in the Caribbean and these waters extend to great depth, so the upwelling cool water may not impede intensification as much as might ordinarily be expected. The intensity Tomas might have as landfall in Hispaniola or Jamaica is highly uncertain, and a strength anywhere between a tropical storm and Category 3 hurricane would not be surprising. The HWRF model predicts Tomas will be a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane on Friday, while the GFDL foresees Tomas will be a strengthening Category 3 hurricane as it bears down on Haiti Friday afternoon. I predict Tomas will have trouble reorganizing, and will be a strengthening Category 1 hurricane on Friday as it makes landfall in Haiti or the Dominican Republic.
Figure 3. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas Friday night at the National Hurricane Center.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 17.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 12 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.5 °F
Looks like a frozen Hurricane. Wonder what Levi has to say about this?
Some 850mb vort appeared, something is going on around there, but nothing to worry about at least for the moment.
I dunno..just checking in here..but he's got a birds-eye view..this is one huge storm!!!
Far away from the convection.
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THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT
90 KT. THE 200-MB FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY IF TOMAS MAINTAINS A MORE
SOUTHERN COURSE. HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES OF THE GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE VORTEX COULD BECOME A LITTLE TILTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHEAR BELOW THE
OUTFLOW LAYER. BECAUSE OF THESE MIXED SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS
AND ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE INTENSITY FAIRLY STEADY THEREAFTER.
.
.
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They also gave a decent percentage chance that the cyclone would be a TS right now. This isn't a video game or an exact science. It's a science of uncertainty.
Same thing they told me about Tomas last week. How you doing JL?
excellent graphic, thanks
Impressive flare up but looks like the low level center is almost at 67W already
winters coming
Good, it was a very nice day here, with lots of sun, yesterday I thought it would be all cloudy with creepy howling winds, thankfully Tomas fell apart.
How's everything going at your side of the world?
The established center IS directly South of PR. However, over the past few hours there has been a trememdous flare-up of convection well to the East and South-east. I do not know if a new center could relocate, but unlikely at this time. It appears the center is far outracing the convection.
Torrential rains almost all day in Ft. Lauderdale. Don't know where it came from. Seemed to come in waves. My rain gauge showed 4.5 inches. Good excuse to stay in and watch football.
Thanks Keeper..that's the one I was trying to Link..The entire Gulf of Alaska,Canada,and northern US West coast feeling it..
You see it, too, huh?
I.T.C.Z. enhancement
Stop it
Use this link to create .Gif animations and to plot them in this blog...
The link is:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_met/PUBLIC/nexsat/pages/NEXSAT.html
1. Select the area you want to animate..
2. In the Animate button select Gif89a
3. Select the size of the anim.
4. I usually select every 4th photo so that the resulting animation is not huge in size
5. Give time and when it is done, copy and paste to the blog
Have fun with it....
I agree..that said,all that energy's gotta go somewhere..
Thanks sunlinepr, I'll work on that.."preciate it..
v/r
Moe
Looking better. Have one in color? They always look scarier
Enjoy it.... Anyone has any ideas or Met. links to share, I'm here to learn....
Warnings
Wind warning for
West Vancouver Island continued
Southeast winds of 90 to 120 km/h over the Queen Charlottes will abate near midnight.
Southeast winds of 80 to 110 km/h over coastal sections of the north and central coasts and over exposed sections of North Vancouver Island will develop early this evening.
Southeast winds of 70 to 90 km/h over west/East Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast will develop late this evening.
This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.
An intense pacific frontal system just west of the Charlottes will move to the north coast this evening. Strong southeast winds have already developed over the Queen Charlottes and will spread down the coast later this evening. Speeds ranging from 90 to 120 km/h will gradually diminish tonight and early Monday morning as the front moves inland.
Moisture associated with this system will result in rainfall amounts up to 70 mm over Howe Sound this evening through Monday afternoon.
Date: 12:00 AM EDT Monday 1 November 2010
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.32 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2
Temperature: 30.9°F
Dewpoint: 22.1°F
Humidity: 69 %
Wind: N 6 mph
Wind Chill: 25
I am on the Southern most part of the Island... we are protected by the Olympic Mountain rain shadow... and the Island Mountain Range :)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL EXIT INTO WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL
SWING THRU EASTERN IDAHO LAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH SNOW
LEVEL REMAINING AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THISSYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY BRINGING A DRYING AND WARNING TREND.
DSH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE WEATHER MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE PUSHES EAST SATURDAY AND HAVE FIRST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN GRIDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE THROUGH
SUNDAY. EUROPEAN REBUILDS RIDGE SUNDAY BUT GFS STAYS MORE ZONAL
AND BRINGS IN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT IN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GK
Shear remains a problem for the foreseeable future, however.
Didn't expect to see Thomas in this kinda shape tonight, sheesh.
Recon getting ready to take off.
04:33:30Z 17.700N 64.817W 1012.3 mb*
(~ 29.89 inHg*) - 1010.6 mb*
(~ 29.84 inHg*)
Viewing: 451 - 501
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