Major Nor'easter pounds New England; icy mess in the South; record floods in Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:10 GMT 12. Leden 2011

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A classic Nor'easter continues to intensify this morning off the New England coast, bringing heavy snow and strong winds from New Jersey to Maine. The snow has ended in New York City, which received 9.1" at Central Park as of 7am EST. Heavier snows of just over a foot fell on nearby regions, with 12.1" in Bedford Park, 13.2" in Levittown, and 12.5" in East Rutherford, NJ. The heaviest snow is occurring in Connecticut, where a storm-high 23" has fallen so far at North Haven. Twenty-two inches fell at Ridgefield on the Connecticut/New York border. The storm is at peak intensity this morning in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, and blizzard warnings are now posted for Boston and the surrounding coast of Massachusetts. Blizzard conditions occur when a storm has frequent wind gusts over 35 mph or sustained winds over 35 mph, plus visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least three consecutive hours. Today's Nor'easter intensified a little more than expected, reaching a central pressure of 983 mb at 8am EST. The storm is currently centered along the Southeast Massachusetts coast, and is bringing very high winds to all of coastal Massachusetts. Winds at the Provincetown airport on the tip of Cape Cod were sustained at 43 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 6:35am EST. A personal weather station at Humarock Beach in Scituate, southeast of Boston, recorded a wind gust of 64 mph at 5:51am EST this morning. Snow fall rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour are common over Rhode Island, western Connecticut, and much of Massachusetts this morning. Some of the heaviest bands are producing three inches of snow per hour, accompanied by thunder. The highest snowfall amounts in Massachusetts as of 6am EST were 14" at Goshen and Worthington. A few locations in the state may see as much as 20" from the storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image taken at 8:30am EST of the Nor'easter of January 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Winter misery continues in the South
Meanwhile, travel over much of the nation's South remains difficult this morning due to the winter storm that left up to a foot of snow and dangerous ice accumulations in its wake. Atlanta had all of its interstate highways open this morning, but continued icy conditions resulted in numerous crashes on area roads. With temperatures expected to remain below freezing in Atlanta and surrounding regions today, the area will be slow to shed its coasting of snow and ice. Temperatures will struggle to reach freezing on Thursday, and it is not until Friday that much of the South will see significant melting of their ice and snow. The South's storm began Sunday in northeast Texas and tracked eastward, bringing snow amounts as high as 7 - 8 inches to northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas, 9 - 11 inches to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Tennessee. The heaviest snow as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary occurred in the Smoky Mountains at Bakersville, North Carolina--20 inches. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Wrightsville, which received 1.5" of ice. Aiken, South Carolina received 1" of ice, and numerous locations in South Carolina, Central Georgia, and Central Alabama received over 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4" were also reported in northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and western Arkansas.

According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his blog post this morning titled, "Snowstorms in the South: A Historical Perspective", the 8.9" that fell on Huntsville, Alabama from this week's storm was that city's third heaviest snow on record. The post has a nice summary of the remarkable heavy snow storms that have hit the South in the past.


Figure 2. A unusually heavy snow storm for North Carolina dropped 20" on Bakersville in the Smoky Mountains, and 7 inches in Asheville, near where this photo was taken. Image credit: wunderphotographer jettking..

Extreme flooding continues in Australia
Flood-weary Queensland, Australia suffered a new flooding disaster on Monday when freak rains of six inches fell in just 30 minutes near Toowoomba. The resulting flash flood killed twelve people, and 40 are still missing. The flood waters poured into the Brisbane River, causing it to overflow, and significant flooding of low-lying areas in Brisbane, Australia's third largest city with some 2 million people, is expected on Thursday. At least 20,000 homes and businesses are expected to be inundated when the Brisbane River crests at a record 18 feet, according to media reports. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports that an additional 100+ mm (4") of rain has fallen in the Brisbane area in the 24 hours ending at 9am local time this morning, further adding to the city's flood woes. No further significant rains are forecast in the Brisbane area until next week, though. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, this is the most significant flooding event in Australia since at least the 1970s. In 2010, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM notes, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 22, and damage estimates are now as high as $13 billion. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.


Figure 3. Still frame from a remarkable 6-minute YouTube video showing the sad fate of a row of parked cars when a flash flood in Toowoomba, Queensland sweeps away dozens of the cars. A note to the wise: Two minutes into the video, we see a man enter the flash flood to save his car. He is successful, but his actions were extremely risky--most flash flood deaths occur when cars with people inside get swept away. I would not have attempted to save my car in that situation.

Jeff Masters

Snowstorm Arrives@ Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Fast and furious
Snowstorm Arrives@ Newport, RI
roof glacier (zjaybirdz)
roof glacier

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478. Thundercloud01221991
04:45 GMT 14. Leden 2011
All 50 states have had snow on the ground at the same time see here:

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2010/February/Rare-Snowy-Weather-Impacts-South/
Member Since: 01-08-06 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
477. Patrap
19:49 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Current Conditions

Mid City Station, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago

Clear

36.7 °F

Clear
Windchill: 32 °F
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 22 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph

A Dayquil Day.

zzzzzzzz...........
Member Since: 03-07-05 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
475. sirmaelstrom
16:44 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

So to summarize your comment: increasing warmth is no sign of increasing warmth? Got it! ;-)

Seriously, though, those record highs (and lows) aren't based on means; they're not anomalies; they're not in comparison to any baseline. They are, instead, absolutes. As each new high (and low) record is set, it moves the standard, meaning it takes an even hotter (or colder) temp to exceed the old record. The fact that each passing decade shows an increasing number of those record highs (and a decreasing number of those record lows) is very telling, don't you think?


Actually, to summarize, a greater than 1:1 trend in record highs over record lows is not necessarily indicative of an upward trend as you suggested, but simply indicates that the current temperatures are above the historical mean.

The increase in ratio is a better indicator of trend admittedly. However, by comparing decades only, more recent trends are harder to see. There seems to be a much greater warming trend from the late 70s to the mid to late 90s than there has been since. Comparing temperatures a decade at a time downplays this.
Member Since: 19-02-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
474. hydrus
16:33 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice twisting motion down near Panama, just what the hell is it think its doing.
Lol..Maybe it will bring some needed rain to Belize.
Member Since: 27-09-07 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
473. Neapolitan
16:27 GMT 13. Leden 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
472. Neapolitan
16:25 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
In short the ratio of record highs to record lows says something about current temperatures relative to the historical mean, but does not reveal much concerning the trend.

So to summarize your comment: increasing warmth is no sign of increasing warmth? Got it! ;-)

Seriously, though, those record highs (and lows) aren't based on means; they're not anomalies; they're not in comparison to any baseline. They are, instead, absolutes. As each new high (and low) record is set, it moves the standard, meaning it takes an even hotter (or colder) temp to exceed the old record. The fact that each passing decade shows an increasing number of those record highs (and a decreasing number of those record lows) is very telling, don't you think?
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
471. DEKRE
16:24 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Doesn't mean the cold is gone, it's just somewhere else


I agree
This is the real point about "Global Warming", not the small increase in temperature
Member Since: 27-04-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
470. RitaEvac
16:22 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Doesn't mean the cold is gone, it's just somewhere else
Member Since: 14-07-08 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
469. RitaEvac
16:21 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Dekre thats called a pattern shift
Member Since: 14-07-08 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
468. Ossqss
16:20 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I would definitely trust a pack of witch-hunting amateur volunteers led by a non-degreed TV weatherman/self-professed "skeptic" with performing a neutral, fair, balanced, and wholly scientific assessment of "official" temperature measuring devices.


Right..... They photo-shop all of the pictures to make them look bad also. Gheeze Bjorn!

Member Since: 12-06-05 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
467. DEKRE
16:20 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Here in Quebec we are now for the last two months well above average with hardly any snow - about same as last year.

To give you an idea, this morning people fron North FL reported here temperatures of 23 °F, we had -2°C, which is 28 °F

Normals in the morning are -16 °C, or 3°F!
Member Since: 27-04-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
466. RitaEvac
16:19 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Nice twisting motion down near Panama, just what the hell is it think its doing.
Member Since: 14-07-08 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
465. atmoaggie
16:16 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is the statistical coldest week of January, which is itself the statistical coldest month of the year (in the northern hemisphere). To have at least a little snow on the ground simultaneously in 49 states is unusual, perhaps, but it's nowhere near unprecedented; after all, as you yourself stated, it happened just last year...
Ummm...

"The latest snow storm to smack New York has made a name for itself. Thanks to the storm, 49 states out of all 50 have snow in them right now in the United States.

The last time that happened was last year when all states except Hawaii had snow and in 1977 when all states except South Carolina had snow.

But today, it's Florida who is the odd man out.

Since Tuesday the National Weather Service has reported that 49 out of the 50 states in the country has snow on the ground somewhere, a rare phenomenon.

There have been no reports of all 50 states having snow at once
"

January 13th, 2011
http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/01/13/snow-in-49-states-snow-in-all-49-states-right-now/

Maybe they are mistaken? Sounds more than "unusual, perhaps". Nice attempt at downplay, though ;-) And, wow, how the heck did GA, FL, and NC get snow and SC didn't in 1977? Whacky.
Member Since: 16-08-07 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
464. hydrus
16:15 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Unfortunately there is a chance of a cycone developing off the NE Qld coast but is expected to track east away from the coast. There is also Cyclone near New Caledonia that could move close to the Qld coast.
I saw the footage. It is hard for me to imagine that it could get worse...I have been through a couple of floods. I almost was killed in one of them...Dangerous stuff.
Member Since: 27-09-07 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
463. hydrus
16:13 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is the statistical coldest week of January, which is itself the statistical coldest month of the year (in the northern hemisphere). To have at least a little snow on the ground simultaneously in 49 states is unusual, perhaps, but it's nowhere near unprecedented; after all, as you yourself stated, it happened just last year...
Good morning Neap...Please be sure to tell the folks in Florida that if they do in fact need any snow to water there plants with, or to keep them from feelin left out, they can have some of mine.....There is plenty..:)
Member Since: 27-09-07 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
462. AussieStorm
16:11 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting hydrus:
I hope there will not be any more weather systems that bring more rain to the devastated areas..Sending prayers your way Aussie.

Unfortunately there is a chance of a cycone developing off the NE Qld coast but is expected to track east away from the coast. There is also Cyclone near New Caledonia that could move close to the Qld coast.
Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
461. Neapolitan
16:09 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting hcubed:


Winter is just another of those "global cycles", and is well understood.

But find any mention, in recorded history, of two winters in a row having that kind of coverage.

The map you chose shows the rarity of snow in all 50 states, especially at once.

THAT'S the trend I'm talking about. Snow cover in all 50 states at once sounds "unprecedented" to me...

This is the statistical coldest week of January, which is itself the statistical coldest month of the year (in the northern hemisphere). To have at least a little snow on the ground simultaneously in 49 states is unusual, perhaps, but it's nowhere near unprecedented; after all, as you yourself stated, it happened just last year...

By the way, you wrote, "The map you chose shows the rarity of snow in all 50 states, especially at once." I suppose that's one way to look at it. Another way would be to say the map shows that on average it snows every year in every state but Florida.
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
460. bassis
16:07 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

The inland tsunami was caused by 8inches of rain falling in the ranges east of Toowoomba. On Tuesday alone they had 14inchs of rain.


That slide show speaks for itself.
Member Since: 08-09-08 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
459. AussieStorm
16:05 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting bassis:


What was the inland tsunami caused from, Earthquake? been sort of keeping up but had not seen that

The inland tsunami was caused by 8inches of rain falling in the ranges east of Toowoomba. On Tuesday alone they had 14inchs of rain.
Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
458. hydrus
16:05 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are Austrailan, we are tough hardy people.
We look after our friends and neighbours, anyone, when times get tough or rough. We are always willing to give our fellow man a hand when needed.
It may take a few weeks to a few years for the effected areas to get back on there feet but they will.

Here is a 3min slideshow of photos from the Qld flooding.

Austrailans have so far donated over $32million towards the flood appeal.
I hope there will not be any more weather systems that bring more rain to the devastated areas..Sending prayers your way Aussie.
Member Since: 27-09-07 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
457. sirmaelstrom
16:04 GMT 13. Leden 2011
№ 422
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe this will warm some of you... ;-)

We've previously posted the following list showing the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations across the CONUS from January 1960 through September 2009:

1960s: 0.77 to 1
1970s: 0.78 to 1
1980s: 1.14 to 1
1990s: 1.36 to 1
2000s: 2.04 to 1

Now, according to figures from the NCDC, 19,213 daily record highs were set or tied in 2010, compared to 8,374 record daily lows:

2010: 2.29 to 1

Pretty incredible. Obviously if the climate were neither warming nor cooling, the ratios would be expected to be pretty close to 1:1. If it were cooling as some have theorized, the ratios would likely be reversed (that is, one would expect there to be more record lows than record highs). Of course, the ratio for 2011 may not be as extreme as 2010's, but it will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the decade. If things go as most climate scientists believe, that CONUS ratio for this decade should be somewhere close to 2.8 or 2.9 to 1. If, on the other hand, The Great Global Cooldown gets underway, as a few have theorized is about to happen, the high/low ratio should have a higher number to the right. But as they say: we'll see.


Actually...No. The ratio favors record highs because the average temperature in 2010 was above the average of the entire historical record. If temperatures were to remain flat for the next several years the ratio would not be 1:1, but still greater than 1:1, as temperatures would still remain above the historical average. Even if temperatures decrease in the near future, the ratio would be expected to favor record highs as long as the average temperature exceeds the historical average. For there to be more record lows than record highs, the average temperature would have to drop to near or below the historical average.

In short the ratio of record highs to record lows says something about current temperatures relative to the historical mean, but does not reveal much concerning the trend.

Member Since: 19-02-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
456. calusakat
16:03 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Good night Gro.

Actually, a very good night... actually found a point of agreement with Nea (you know you need to emphasize the positive).

And...

Het was echte koud gisteren avond, zoals je had gezedgt. Het tuin is nu "Zwart Dood". Herinnerin je dat in het 14st eeuw of zo?

je ben juist... het is koud.

Te veel "anti-freeze" mischien?

Wel te rustig...



For those of you interested in a quick way to translate the Dutch passages into English.

Go to http://translate.google.com/#

Cut and paste the passage you are interested in and the translation appears as if by magic.

Takes less than a minute.


Member Since: 10-10-08 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
455. WaterWitch11
16:02 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Rome (CNN) -- Mount Etna rumbled Wednesday, sending lava down its side. Italian vulcanologists are monitoring the Sicilian volcano, they said Thursday.
Etna began tremors Tuesday night, the Italian Institute of Vulcanology said.
They reached their peak Wednesday morning, and lava flowed down the eastern rim on Wednesday night.


isn't that where kronos is?
Member Since: 11-08-08 Posts: 3 Comments: 1638
454. Neapolitan
16:01 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Ossqss:
Lets have a closer look at those surface stations.

http://surfacestations.org/

Then lets listen to the, soon to follow, well tamed scientific explanation of how they have a cold bias and the temps should be higher :)

I would definitely trust a pack of witch-hunting amateur volunteers led by a non-degreed TV weatherman/self-professed "skeptic" with performing a neutral, fair, balanced, and wholly scientific assessment of "official" temperature measuring devices.
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
453. bassis
16:01 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are Austrailan, we are tough hardy people.
We look after our friends and neighbours, anyone, when times get tough or rough. We are always willing to give our fellow man a hand when needed.
It may take a few weeks to a few years for the effected areas to get back on there feet but they will.


What was the inland tsunami caused from, Earthquake? been sort of keeping up but had not seen that
Member Since: 08-09-08 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
452. AussieStorm
15:48 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Been watching that in the news and via blogs from Oz. Pretty amazing, and pretty devastating. I know a lot of people are wishing you guys all the best...

We are Austrailan, we are tough hardy people.
We look after our friends and neighbours, anyone, when times get tough or rough. We are always willing to give our fellow man a hand when needed.
It may take a few weeks to a few years for the effected areas to get back on there feet but they will.

Here is a 3min slideshow of photos from the Qld flooding.

Austrailans have so far donated over $32million towards the flood appeal.

Further more, in parts of Victoria are bracing for flooding from the same system that dumped trumendous amounts of rain on Qld. Some towns have been put on high alert for flash flooding and river/creek flooding.
Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
451. hcubed
15:46 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

That "trend" of which you speak is called "winter". It's a recurring phenomenon long-term climate records show happens on average once a year. ;-)

Click for larger image:

See No Science. Speak No Science. Hear No Science.


Winter is just another of those "global cycles", and is well understood.

But find any mention, in recorded history, of two winters in a row having that kind of coverage.

The map you chose shows the rarity of snow in all 50 states, especially at once.

THAT'S the trend I'm talking about. Snow cover in all 50 states at once sounds "unprecedented" to me...
Member Since: 18-05-07 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
450. AussieStorm
15:44 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey Aussie!

That sounds bad...

The area of the disaster declared zone is the size of France, Spain and half of Germany combined.

I was just re-reading the seasonal outlook by the BOM and it says:
Queensland may experience above average tropical cyclone activity this coming season, with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea. It is also likely to be wetter than normal in most parts.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Queensland Regional Director, Jim Davidson, said this is because we're now in a La Nina climate phase, which he expects will remain the dominating influence through the Spring and Summer months.

La Nina events are usually associated with above normal rainfall across much of Queensland and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Mr Davidson said "What this translates to is where historically we could expect an average of four cyclones a season in the Coral Sea, we now expect the number to be potentially higher, but the number of cyclones actually making landfall can be quite variable from season to season."

"However, under these conditions, we have a good chance of a cyclone crossing the coast before the year is out." he said.

Mr Davidson urged Queenslanders to "prepare early not only for cyclones but also for floods as we have already experienced record September rainfalls across the state."

"Preparation is the key to safety, and we encourage communities to factor in the possibility of a destructive cyclone or major flood into their pre-season planning." said Mr Davidson.
Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
449. atmoaggie
15:42 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
WD has another explanation for the earlier sunrise.
That is interesting. Wonder if something about the atmosphere is different from other years to allow for it...
Member Since: 16-08-07 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
448. Ossqss
15:41 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Lets have a closer look at those surface stations.

http://surfacestations.org/

Then lets listen to the, soon to follow, well tamed scientific explanation of how they have a cold bias and the temps should be higher :)
Member Since: 12-06-05 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
447. Neapolitan
15:39 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi all, back again.
If anyone has any questions about the flooding in Northern NSW and SE Queensland WU-mail me and i'll try to answer them as best as I can.

Latest news,
25 dead since the start of the flood crisis. 15 this week.
12 from the inland tsunami that struck Toowoomba and Gatton on Tuesday afternoon.
59 people still missing.
103,000 people without power.
50-80 Suburbs in Brisbane effect by flooding.
4.2m/13.2ft Brisbane river peaked at 4:15am.

Been watching that in the news and via blogs from Oz. Pretty amazing, and pretty devastating. I know a lot of people are wishing you guys all the best...
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
446. Skyepony (Mod)
15:38 GMT 13. Leden 2011
WD has another explanation for the earlier sunrise.
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
445. atmoaggie
15:37 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi all, back again.
If anyone has any questions about the flooding in Northern NSW and SE Queensland WU-mail me and i'll try to answer them as best as I can.

Latest news,
25 dead since the start of the flood crisis. 15 this week.
12 from the inland tsunami that struck Toowoomba and Gatton on Tuesday afternoon.
59 people still missing.
103,000 people without power.
50-80 Suburbs in Brisbane effect by flooding.
4.2m/13.2ft Brisbane river peaked at 4:15am.
Hey Aussie!

That sounds bad...
Member Since: 16-08-07 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
444. Neapolitan
15:34 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting hcubed:


Isn't this like the second winter in a row that's had snow repored in a majority of states (last year, on Feb 12th, all 50 at one time, this year, 49 of 50 with flurries possible tonight in Fla)?

Not that it's a sign of global cooling, but a trend is starting...

That "trend" of which you speak is called "winter". It's a recurring phenomenon long-term climate records show happens on average once a year. ;-)

Click for larger image:

See No Science. Speak No Science. Hear No Science.
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
443. AussieStorm
15:31 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Hi all, back again.
If anyone has any questions about the flooding in Northern NSW and SE Queensland WU-mail me and i'll try to answer them as best as I can.

Latest news,
25 dead since the start of the flood crisis. 15 this week.
12 from the inland tsunami that struck Toowoomba and Gatton on Tuesday afternoon.
59 people still missing.
103,000 people without power.
50-80 Suburbs in Brisbane effect by flooding.
4.2m/13.2ft Brisbane river peaked at 4:15am.
Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
442. smartinwx
15:28 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

The "Great Global Cooldown" comment was a joking reference to the theory offered by a number of people--including some right here on WU--that states not only is there no such thing as "global warming", but the planet is actually cooling. Source-wise, it's easy to find plenty of press; here's a representative sampling:

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/19/global-cooling-scientists-warming/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6965342/Big-freeze-could-signal-global-w arming-pause.html

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling/article10866.htm

http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2008/12/18/cooler-year-on-a-cooling-planet/

http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

IMO, it takes a special kind of person to look at certain facts--2010 was one of the warmest ever recorded, seven of the warmest years ever recorded start with "20", the top ten warmest year ever have been since 1995, the growing imbalance between record highs and record lows etc.--and proclaim with certainty, "Yep, the globe is definitely cooling." Now, the "coolistas" may eventually be proven correct--but so far there are absolutely no signs of it happening.


Are temperature comparisons made from site to site, or overall global temperatures?

It seems to me that more reporting stations are coming online everyday, perhaps these stations are in warmer, developing countries, while the older readings are from cooler, developed countries.

Member Since: 22-09-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
441. Neapolitan
15:24 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting ILwthrfan:

You talk of the great global cooldown...do you have any source links or deeper insight of that.

The "Great Global Cooldown" comment was a joking reference to the theory offered by a number of people--including some right here on WU--that states not only is there no such thing as "global warming", but the planet is actually cooling. Source-wise, it's easy to find plenty of press; here's a representative sampling:

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/19/global-cooling-scientists-warming/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6965342/Big-freeze-could-signal-global-w arming-pause.html

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling/article10866.htm

http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2008/12/18/cooler-year-on-a-cooling-planet/

http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

IMO, it takes a special kind of person to look at certain facts--2010 was one of the warmest ever recorded, seven of the warmest years ever recorded start with "20", the top ten warmest year ever have been since 1995, the growing imbalance between record highs and record lows etc.--and proclaim with certainty, "Yep, the globe is definitely cooling." Now, the "coolistas" may eventually be proven correct--but so far there are absolutely no signs of it happening.
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
440. smartinwx
15:24 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Global Warming in the news

http://theweek.com/article/index/210181/irony-alert-the-unusually-chilly-global-warming-summit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8178162/Are-we-freezing-because-of-globa l-warming.html

Member Since: 22-09-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
439. severstorm
15:23 GMT 13. Leden 2011

Here ya go...what 1030am and still in the 30's in wcfl.
Member Since: 25-11-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
438. Skyepony (Mod)
15:21 GMT 13. Leden 2011
[This article translated by Google.]

Beyond the Arctic Circle, can find the time needed for day and night depending on latitude up to half a year, the sunrise something very special - even more so when the always joyfully anticipated event is just around two days early is taking place. According to the KNR Radio Greenland, the sun was in West Greenland Ilulissat on Tuesday (11.1.) at exactly 12:56:57 Clock. Normally the sun goes there until 13 January for the first time after the polar night again. Inhabitants of the third-largest city with 4,500 inhabitants of Greenland, made because of the early sun appeared worried. "Here in the place the sun comes up until 13 January. There will not be the right one or the other," quoted the Greenlandic radio KNR Holger Sivertsen, a 74-year-old local, in a report on his website. Scientists rule out that the observation could have geophysical or astronomical reasons. "In the constellation of the stars has not changed, "said Wolfgang Lenhardt, head of the geophysics department at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) on the high tower. "Since even an outcry would have gone around the world." The data of Earth's axis and Earth's rotation in question were constantly and meticulously monitored. Thomas Posch from the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Vienna completed astronomical reasons for the premature end of the polar night also made. He suggests that the observation is due to a change in the local horizon. An accelerated by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet-related lower horizon earlier than previously allowed a glimpse of the sun appears, as "by far the most obvious"explanation. According to Lenhardt it could possibly also to an atmospheric phenomenon - act - for example by ice crystals caused a mirage.
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
437. atmoaggie
15:13 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Bottomed out at 21 F in Slidell (~25 miles NE of NOLA)
Member Since: 16-08-07 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
436. weathers4me
15:12 GMT 13. Leden 2011
40 here this morning in Terra Ceia FL.
Member Since: 24-05-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
435. hcubed
15:10 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Cold though it may be, it's not much out of the ordinary for the second week of January; according to HAMweather, just 13 record daily lows were set or tied yesterday across the CONUS (there were no record daily highs). The coldest of the records: -47 in Dickinson, ND (a tie with that station's all-time record). Ouch... I would imagine there will be many more today, though we'll have to wait until all stations have reported.

Danbury, CT, received 21.8" of snow yesterday, a new all-time record snowfall.


Isn't this like the second winter in a row that's had snow repored in a majority of states (last year, on Feb 12th, all 50 at one time, this year, 49 of 50 with flurries possible tonight in Fla)?

Not that it's a sign of global cooling, but a trend is starting...
Member Since: 18-05-07 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
434. atmoaggie
15:09 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting JFLORIDA:


More superstition - what a surprise. If you really knew something you'd flesh out one point with some degree of competence. You dont, so you play the field attempting to plant uncertainty anywhere you can and it shows. When that doesn't work you go for a more individual approach.

Totally unethical methodology but look at who you link to and get inspiration from.

Thats not science. Thats your political issues.

I think you are projecting also with the "tiresome and boring" part.

Add predictable to it.
Aww, couldn't find anything at all wrong with the discussion of glaciers and the LIA solar minimums?

So, had to invoke "attack scary science type" emergency action plan. Sad that you guys cannot use any logic on the topic, which would make it a lot less tiresome and boring.
Member Since: 16-08-07 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
433. PakaSurvivor
15:09 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
We're between Ellijay & Blue Ridge. Tomorrows high in town is forecast at 36. We usually run about 6 degrees lower, Summer or Winter.


Good Morning,

Drive threw your neck of the woods from the Florida Panhandle several time a year heading to Murphy. Alway enjoy driving through some real mountains.
Member Since: 20-09-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
432. atmoaggie
15:04 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting MichaelSTL:


You still fail utterly to grasp the meaning of this:



By the way:



Interpretation:



Yale profile of Wunderground.com%u2019s Jeff Masters: %u201CThe ignorance and greed that human society is showing [on climate change] will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction.%u201D

Indeed...

(So I give the last punch)



Hahahaha!

Member Since: 16-08-07 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
431. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
14:51 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
0:00 AM FST January 14 2011
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 20.6S 167.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots and is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in the sector from north through east to southwest

within 120 NM elsewhere

Additional Information
=======================

Overall organization has improved over the past 24 hours. Primary band has wrapped tightly around the low level circulation center. Deep warming of cloud tops along main band past 3 hours. Outflow good to north, east, and south but restricted elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track for the next 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.


Dvorak assessment based on embedded center pattern with MG surrounding yielding DT=4.5, MET=PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity:T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 21.3S 167.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 22.4S 167.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 26.0S 167.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24-05-06 Posts: 51 Comments: 45626
430. hcubed
14:50 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Uh, collapse of civilization? Who are you listening to?


Introduction to climate economics: Why even strong climate action has such a low total cost
A cost of one tenth of a penny on the dollar -- not counting co-benefits

Energy and global warming news for January 12, 2011: Global investment in clean energy soaring; China, still outspending US, now matches us in wind capacity

Global investment in low-carbon energy surged to a record $243 billion last year, boosted by a 30 percent spending increase in China and a burst in small-scale solar-power installations.

The figure eclipses the $186.5 billion spent in 2009 and is more than double the level in 2005, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said today in a statement. The investment came even as clean energy shares had a “lackluster performance” last year, the London-based research company said.

The investment “flies in the face of skepticism about the clean-energy sector among public market investors,” New Energy Finance Chief Executive Officer Michael Liebreich said. “We have been saying for some time that the world needs to reach a figure of $500 billion per annum investment in clean energy if we are to see carbon emissions peak by 2020. What we are seeing in these figures for the first time is that we are halfway there.”


Of course, then we have stuff like this, where China says that coal demand will continue to increase for the foreseeable future, regardless of how much we put into renewable energy:


Special Report- China tries to give old king coal a merrier soul

Chinese government analysts expect annual coal demand to reach at least 4 billion tonnes by 2020, 25 percent higher than 2009, even after taking into account unprecedented levels of investment in nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro that the country is likely to see over the period.


Speaking about China's coal, I wonder if they've ever put out those fires:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4330469.stm

"...But the scale of China's own entangled history with coal is overwhelming. Right across northern China, coal seams burn in un-stoppable fires.

Some have been burning naturally for thousands of years, but others are being set alight by small-scale mining operations seeking to cash in on soaring coal prices.

Together, these perpetual fires are letting off a total amount of carbon dioxide each year equal to all the cars in the USA..."
Member Since: 18-05-07 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
429. ILwthrfan
14:35 GMT 13. Leden 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe this will warm some of you... ;-)

We've previously posted the following list showing the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations across the CONUS from January 1960 through September 2009:

1960s: 0.77 to 1
1970s: 0.78 to 1
1980s: 1.14 to 1
1990s: 1.36 to 1
2000s: 2.04 to 1

Now, according to figures from the NCDC, 19,213 daily record highs were set or tied in 2010, compared to 8,374 record daily lows:

2010: 2.29 to 1

Pretty incredible. Obviously if the climate were neither warming nor cooling, the ratios would be expected to be pretty close to 1:1. If it were cooling as some have theorized, the ratios would likely be reversed (that is, one would expect there to be more record lows than record highs). Of course, the ratio for 2011 may not be as extreme as 2010's, but it will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the decade. If things go as most climate scientists believe, that CONUS ratio for this decade should be somewhere close to 2.8 or 2.9 to 1. If, on the other hand, The Great Global Cooldown gets underway, as a few have theorized is about to happen, the high/low ratio should have a higher number to the right. But as they say: we'll see.


How much of an impact has the Iceland volcano had on the artic circulation being in reverse?

You talk of the great global cooldown...do you have any source links or deeper insight of that.

Appreciate it.
Member Since: 02-02-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 1526
428. Jax82
14:27 GMT 13. Leden 2011
9-Jan-2010 SST


9-Jan-2011 SST
Member Since: 02-09-08 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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