Failure of Glory satellite a major loss for climate change science
As the Taurus XL rocket boosting the $424 million Glory climate change research satellite roared off the launch pad from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base just after 2am PDT on March 4, NASA scientists and engineers from the rocket's maker, Orbital Sciences Corporation, were optimistic. A similar Taurus XL rocket failed in February 2009, resulting in the loss of the $273 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory, which was designed to preform high-resolution measurements of emissions of carbon dioxide from Earth. The rocket's fairing, a nose cone designed to shield satellites as it traveled through Earth's atmosphere did not separate properly, dooming the Orbiting Carbon Observatory to a spot at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Engineers redesigned the rocket, which did several successful launches over the past two years. But the rocket failed again for Glory's launch, and now the satellite lies useless beneath the South Pacific Ocean.
Figure 1. Climate responds to changes in the sun's radiation, dust (aerosol) particles, reflectivity of the surface (albedo) due to changes in land use, and concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons. Changes in any of these quantities are called "forcings", and can force the climate to be warmer (red bars) or cooler (blue bars.) The word "radiative" arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation (heat) within Earth's atmosphere. Since 1750, the changes in radiative forcing as estimated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that human activities, primarily due to increases in CO2 and other heat-trapping gases, have forced the climate to a warmer state. This forcing is equivalent to 1.6 watts per square meter of extra energy arriving everywhere on Earth's surface. However, there is a large uncertainty (LOSU = Level Of Scientific Understanding) on how much particles in the atmosphere (aerosols) affect Earth's climate. The uncertainty bars for the direct effect of particles in the atmosphere (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are very large compared to the uncertainty bars for other forcings.
The loss of the Glory satellite is a particularly bitter blow, since the satellite was designed to study the greatest unknown in climate change science--the emissions, composition, and distribution of dust particles in the atmosphere. Particles in the atmosphere (called aerosols by scientists) come from a variety of human-caused and natural sources. Black soot from fires can act to warm the climate, particularly if these black particles fall on ice and snow. However, most particles emitted into the atmosphere reflect sunlight back into space, and thus cool the climate. As seen in Figure 1, both the direct effects of dust particles (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are poorly known. It was hoped that data from the Glory satellite could significantly reduce these uncertainties. There is no replacement mission for Glory scheduled, and Congress' current budget-cutting appetite makes it unlikely a replacement satellite will be funded anytime soon. A replacement mission for the failed Orbital Carbon Observatory is scheduled for February 2013, but that mission may be delayed, since is it being launched by the same type of rocket that failed in Glory's launch.
As Gavin Schmidt notes in a post over at realclimate.org on Glory's demise, working from space is hard, expensive, and risky. Rocket failures resulting in the loss of hugely expensive satellites are not uncommon, and it takes years to procure funding and build new satellites. But, there is no substitute for satellites; the global coverage and detail of data they provide cannot be matched by surface- or aircraft-based observations. We must continue to hurl them into space, or risk plotting our course blindly into the future with only a fuzzy idea of how our planet is changing.
I'll be back on Friday with an April Fool's Day post.
Jeff Masters
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Tampa, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
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Tomorrow will deliver more interesting weather but looks like not tonight, at least not over here on the east coast of Central Florida.
yeah, tomorrow is forecast to be "severe" over here.
Should be interesting! Don't think I'll be going anywhere except locally though.
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TORE A ROOF OFF A MOBILE HOME ON STARBOARD DRIVE IN BEVERLY BEACH.
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS DAMAGED POOL SCREENS IN NORTHEAST PALM COAST. DIME SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.
A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH IN NORTHEAST PALM COAST.
I can see the setup perfect from that image alone.. Note the disturbance in back of the storm, gotta catch up with the front. Southwesterly winds as well.. Tomorrow will be interesting indeed, may not be as bad as today, but we'll see.
3 DAY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SUMMIT
Yep i agree, i am using Chrome and it too has a nice spell check. Thanks for the heads up earlier.
You use that silly thing? LOL! How's it going Pat?
Watching Hank Hill.(Adult Swim)
He's my Bud.
My bud will be on at 11 (Brian Griffin).
Robert Plant and the Band O Joy Headline @ 5:30 on the Acura stage,right after Jeff Beck, opening day April 29th.
Dat Griffin is good too
you can see the next round of energy moving thru Texas!
We gotta music fest down here. Jeff Beck is coming, so is Earth, Wind & Fire, and the new Sublime, to name a few.
The Newt Gingrich story,,coming In June 2011
Things seem to be quieting down some for the nite until tomorrow. Next round coming tho. Look out Texas and Louisiana.
+1000000
That's very true.
You're scaring me, Tim. What are we looking out for?
Spring,Spring oh Spring where have you've gone?
We waited for you through the brutal winter for so long.
We are envious of people in Florida bathinging in 70's,80's and 90's while we get 20's,30's,and 40-50's.
Spring where did you go?.Please come back I'll forgive you so.
I look out the window at the poor buds.
Spring why did you have to do this to us?
You've betraded us so,So now I'll let yo go.
That's while I'll be looking forward to summer,so I'm done with you now don't come back.I'll always remember 2011 for the spring it lacked.
Reactor unit #3 Hydrogen Blast
Fukushima engineer confesses to participating in criminal coverup, says flawed steel in Reactor 4 has always been a ‘time bomb’
‘Just days after the 9.1 mega-earthquake and tsunami hit off the east cost of Japan, a former employee of Hitachi Ltd. (6501) came forward saying that he helped cover up a flawed steel protective vessel that was installed in the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Reactor 4 core in 1974. Mitsuhiko Tanaka told Bloomberg that the defective steel in the $250 million vessel was a very serious “time bomb” just waiting to go off, as it represents the key protective unit for the reactor’s core.
Though Reactor 4 was not running at the time of the quake and tsunami, its cooling pool contains a number of spent fuel rods that require proper cooling in order to prevent a serious meltdown. Earlier this week, reports indicated that the pool is empty, and that it seems to have a crack or hole that is preventing it from being effectively refilled, which could spell disaster for the 130 tons of uranium inside the reactor.’
…
According to the Bloomberg report, a mistake during the final construction process of the vessel caused the steel walls to become warped. Based on regulatory guidelines, the cylinder should have been scrapped, said Tanaka, but because doing so would have potentially bankrupted the company, his bosses asked him to come up with a quick fix — and he complied.
…
After figuring out a way to reshape the flawed vessel and make it look as though nothing was wrong, Tanaka was awarded a three million yen bonus from Hitachi, which also gave him a certificate honoring his “extraordinary” work.
…
Years later when asked to participate in a documentary on the Chernobyl disaster, Tanaka says he became convicted over what he had done, and decided to come forward with the truth. When he told the Japanese Trade Ministry about the coverup in 1988, they allegedly refused to do anything about it, saying that because Hitachi had denied the accusations, they must not have been true.
Read more: Fukushima Engineer Confesses to Participating in Criminal Coverup, Says Flawed Steel in Reactor Four Has Always Been a ‘Time Bomb’
For corporate media source see this Bloomberg article.
Not quite.. The disturbance is passing through TX/LA, but behind the front.. Nothing severe will be going on that far west. It's Florida that needs to really watch how things evolve tomorrow.
* From: AFP
* March 31, 2011 10:51AM
JAPAN is weighing up a series of solutions to its unfolding nuclear disaster, from draping reactors with special fabric to sending in military robots to do the risky work.
Pressure to come up with fresh ideas intensified as Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which operates the crippled Fukushima plant, admitted it had no idea when the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl would be under control.
"Key factors are still unknown, such as how the nuclear incident will come to an end... In a word, the very difficult situation is expected to continue," TEPCO chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata told reporters.
One stop-gap measure reported by the local media involved covering three badly damaged outer reactor buildings with special fabric caps and fitting air filters to limit radiation.
Another plan was to anchor an empty tanker off reactor two, so that workers can pump several Olympic swimming pools' worth of highly-radioactive runoff water into its hull, media said.
"We are in an unprecedented situation, so we need to think about different strategies, beyond what we normally think about," an official with the nuclear safety agency told AFP.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the government and nuclear experts were discussing "every possibility, including those mentioned in the press."
In the latest attempt to contain the disaster, workers will today begin to carpet two-thirds of the plant's 1.2 hectares of grounds with a resin to trap the radioactive particles, the agency said later.
The US has lent Japan robots of a model battle-tested in Iraq and Afghanistan that can navigate, film and clear rubble in the blast-hit reactor buildings, which humans cannot enter because of very high radiation levels.
US President Barack Obama vowed continued help as he talked to Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan for the third time since the disaster, which has left over 11,000 confirmed dead and more than 16,000 listed as missing.
The UN's atomic watchdog says radiation in a village outside the evacuation zone around a stricken Japanese nuclear plant is above safe levels, urging that Japan reassess the situation.
In its first such call, the International Atomic Energy Agency added its voice to that of Greenpeace in warning over radioactivity in Iitate village, where the government has already told residents not to drink tap water.
Iitate village is 40km northwest of the crisis-hit plant - outside the government-imposed 20km exclusion zone and the 30km "stay indoors" zone.
"The first assessment indicates that one of the IAEA operational criteria for evacuation is exceeded in Iitate village," the IAEA's head of nuclear safety and security, Denis Flory, told reporters in Vienna today.
The watchdog advised Japanese authorities to "carefully assess the situation and they have indicated that it is already under assessment," Flory said.
But he added the IAEA, which does not have the mandate to order national authorities to act, was not calling for a general widening of the exclusion zone.
Amid public fears over contamination from the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl, campaign group Greenpeace called earlier Wednesday for the zone to be expanded to evacuate everyone within 30km of the plant.
It said the government should consider moving children and pregnant women beyond that, after urging Tuesday that residents of Iitate be moved.
Radiation expert Jan van der Putte said "remaining in Iitate for just a few days could mean receiving the maximum permissible annual dose of radiation".
AFP
Wunderful..
not
In its first such call, the International Atomic Energy Agency added its voice to that of Greenpeace in warning over radioactivity in Iitate village, where the government has already told residents not to drink tap water.
Un-real,,.
Maybe they can just drink Suntori Beer,Soda and Tiger Blood...?
Local Radar Map
Updated Mar 30, 2011, 7:35pm EDT Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map Get WeatherReadyPrepare for Winter Storms
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... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
* LOCATIONS... ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... CATSKILLS... SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF NEW YORK... THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY.
* HAZARDS... HEAVY WET SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS... POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LESS SNOW WILL FALL IN THE VALLEYS.
* TIMING... SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES... FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
I'm out for the night. Night y'all.
Think that is what i said i think.
Didn't we all know or at least think they was hiding many facts from the world. No doubt a melt down has occurred in my opinion.
By Sachiko Sakamaki and Jonathan Tirone - Mar 30, 2011 7:13 PM CT
The risk to workers might be greater than previously thought because melted fuel in the No. 1 reactor building may be causing isolated, uncontrolled nuclear chain reactions, Denis Flory, nuclear safety director for the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, said at a press conference in Vienna.
'Localized Criticality'
Nuclear experts call these reactions "localized criticality," which will increase radiation and hamper the ability to shut down the plant. The reactions consist of a burst of heat, radiation and sometimes an "ethereal blue flash," according to the U.S. Energy Department's Los Alamos National Laboratory web site. Twenty-one workers have been killed by "criticality accidents" since 1945, the site said.
Radioactive chlorine found March 25 in the Unit 1 turbine building suggests chain reactions continued after the reactor shut down, physicist Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, wrote in a March 28 paper. Radioactive chlorine has a half-life of 37 minutes, according to the report.
Sell,Sell,Sell..!
TEPCO claims could hit $133 billion on Japan nuclear
Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc
9501.T
506
40.00 8.58%
8:00pm CST
TOKYO | Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:45pm EDT
Yeah,,all this BS and here we are.
Let alone the Dead and missing from the Quake and Tsunami.
Heavy Sighs all round.
We should all pause and count our blessings.
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