Failure of Glory satellite a major loss for climate change science
As the Taurus XL rocket boosting the $424 million Glory climate change research satellite roared off the launch pad from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base just after 2am PDT on March 4, NASA scientists and engineers from the rocket's maker, Orbital Sciences Corporation, were optimistic. A similar Taurus XL rocket failed in February 2009, resulting in the loss of the $273 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory, which was designed to preform high-resolution measurements of emissions of carbon dioxide from Earth. The rocket's fairing, a nose cone designed to shield satellites as it traveled through Earth's atmosphere did not separate properly, dooming the Orbiting Carbon Observatory to a spot at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Engineers redesigned the rocket, which did several successful launches over the past two years. But the rocket failed again for Glory's launch, and now the satellite lies useless beneath the South Pacific Ocean.
Figure 1. Climate responds to changes in the sun's radiation, dust (aerosol) particles, reflectivity of the surface (albedo) due to changes in land use, and concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons. Changes in any of these quantities are called "forcings", and can force the climate to be warmer (red bars) or cooler (blue bars.) The word "radiative" arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation (heat) within Earth's atmosphere. Since 1750, the changes in radiative forcing as estimated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that human activities, primarily due to increases in CO2 and other heat-trapping gases, have forced the climate to a warmer state. This forcing is equivalent to 1.6 watts per square meter of extra energy arriving everywhere on Earth's surface. However, there is a large uncertainty (LOSU = Level Of Scientific Understanding) on how much particles in the atmosphere (aerosols) affect Earth's climate. The uncertainty bars for the direct effect of particles in the atmosphere (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are very large compared to the uncertainty bars for other forcings.
The loss of the Glory satellite is a particularly bitter blow, since the satellite was designed to study the greatest unknown in climate change science--the emissions, composition, and distribution of dust particles in the atmosphere. Particles in the atmosphere (called aerosols by scientists) come from a variety of human-caused and natural sources. Black soot from fires can act to warm the climate, particularly if these black particles fall on ice and snow. However, most particles emitted into the atmosphere reflect sunlight back into space, and thus cool the climate. As seen in Figure 1, both the direct effects of dust particles (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are poorly known. It was hoped that data from the Glory satellite could significantly reduce these uncertainties. There is no replacement mission for Glory scheduled, and Congress' current budget-cutting appetite makes it unlikely a replacement satellite will be funded anytime soon. A replacement mission for the failed Orbital Carbon Observatory is scheduled for February 2013, but that mission may be delayed, since is it being launched by the same type of rocket that failed in Glory's launch.
As Gavin Schmidt notes in a post over at realclimate.org on Glory's demise, working from space is hard, expensive, and risky. Rocket failures resulting in the loss of hugely expensive satellites are not uncommon, and it takes years to procure funding and build new satellites. But, there is no substitute for satellites; the global coverage and detail of data they provide cannot be matched by surface- or aircraft-based observations. We must continue to hurl them into space, or risk plotting our course blindly into the future with only a fuzzy idea of how our planet is changing.
I'll be back on Friday with an April Fool's Day post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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As quoted by Mayhem of the Allstate commercials..."Shakey...shakey, shakey, shakey!"
Sorry... wanted to provide a little levity here. It was already stressful for me as my daughter lives in Brandon. She was a bit freaked.
Guess they are using the CLIP5 model.
Or maybe the FLUSH model.
Gonna be some damage
The forecast changed. Historically, springtime forecasts stink, especially when the ENSO status is changing. Early last year, the ENSO models were showing a transition from a moderate-to-strong El Nino to neutral or weak La Nina. As the year went on, it became apparent that ENSO was trending towards a moderate-to-strong La Nina, which changes forecasts quite a bit. Also, the atmosphere lagged behind the ocean (much like 2009 did, iirc), which made forecasting difficult.
The Caribbean was rather wonky last year, with invisible (at least to most models and measurements) dry slots at the mid levels.
And finally, the persistent trough on the East Coast was *not* well forecasted, in either its duration or intensity.
[edit: Anyone with more experience or tools available to them, feel free to correct me]
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
TORNADO WATCH 81 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FLC009-015-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-08 5-093-095-097-
099-103-105-111-115-117-010000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0081.110331T1645Z-110401T0000Z/
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE
LOL! Your in Crooks Hands, at MCO and Pilot.....lmfao
I'm not fond of Allstate myself, especially after comparing my wife's rates with mine (I'm technically a higher risk group, and I was paying $400 less per year in a newer, more expensive car, both of us with totally clean records)
Good grief. I don't give 2 shakes about the insurance carrier. I just find the commercial funny, just like I USED to find the Geico commercials funny.
Yah, and trust me the real crookedness begins when you submit a claim. I caught them in 2009 in Denver getting into IntegraClaim and changing the pricing downward about 30-40%. They changed a square of roofing 25 yr shingles from 145 a square to a round 100 bucks. They are so stupid that when they do downward slope pricing they round numbers off. Crooked as the day is long.....Trust me, find u a new carrier before hurricane season starts if you live in CONUS east coast. I think the predictions for a busy storm season will be dramatically higher than the November/December 2010 predictions since the La Nina has not receded but in fact has only strengthened. When they announce the new predictions the premium quotes for all carriers will have to be raised....so change now before you will pay more...
lol, nothing wrong with that friend...Cheers
They make me laugh too, but I also laugh at different levels of the joke, like how they r so crooked and the commercials just look spooky in a way like the film stock is silver nitrate.....anyhow :) cheers
Brings to mind that saying: "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few..."
hmm neutral strange maybe the models show that but here on the gulf coast we haven't seen the end of the pineapple express all year. 58 degrees at the end of march....it feels like december/january. but maybe im missing something.
Or the one
lol elf sorry didn't mean to troll or attack your comments. your cool i just saw that allstate commercial and it made me rattle on in a different direction.
no malice intended, i just know about certain things and i was trying to help you all out by informing you of on the ground conditions in the real world. what you said was totally cool, sorry about the confusion :)
LOL
You'll probably get even worse than me.
Forever, FL. Damage has been reported all along this stretch. The
tornado has crossed over the turnpike and heading toward I-95 near June
Park and eventually Melbourne. Damaging, destructive winds are likely.
There are active tornado warnings across central Florida including the
I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando. The tornado threat continues through
this afternoon. Track the Storms
weather.com
its pretty cold behind this front thats moving over all of u in fla. im in mobile and we r behind it....its about 55-60 degrees here, colder in the shade. last night it was pounding lightning deep and way up in the atmosphere cuz when it would strike it would rumble a super long time. i bet the tops of those clouds are way way up there.
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