Texas drought could last 9 years; Ophelia a Cat 3; Cat 4 Nalgae nears Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:52 GMT 30. Září 2011

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The devastating Texas drought that has already cost over $5 billion could continue for nine more years, predicted Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon in an interview with Reuters yesterday. "It is possible that we could be looking at another of these multi-year droughts like we saw in the 1950s, and like the tree rings have shown that the state has experienced over the last several centuries," Nielson-Gammon said. Drought statistics released yesterday by the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas is experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The past 12 months have been the driest one-year period on record in Texas. The main blame for this year's drought can be put on La Niña, the cooling of equatorial Pacific waters that deflects the jet stream and takes rain-bearing low pressure system away from Texas. Other large-scale atmospheric/oceanic patterns called the Pacfic Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have also favored dry conditions for Texas this year. When the AMO brings warm ocean temperatures to the North Atlantic, as it has since 1995, Texas is typically dry. Texas also tends to be dry when the PDO brings cool ocean temperatures to the coastal North Pacific next to North America. This has been the case since 2007 (except for late 2009 and early 2010.) In a post earlier this month in his excellent blog, Climate Abyss, Nielson-Gammon has this to say about the influence of global warming on the 2011 drought:

Precipitation: The balance of evidence does not support the assertion that the rainfall deficit since October 2010 was made larger or more likely by global warming.

Temperature: Compared to long-term averages of summer temperature,the rainfall deficit accounted for about 4°F of excess heat and global warming accounted for about 1°F of excess heat. Warmer temperatures lead to greater water demand, faster evaporation, and greater drying-out of potential fuels for fire. Thus, the impacts of the drought were enhanced by global warming, much of which has been caused by man.


Figure 1. This week's Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas was experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

High fire danger for Texas today
Strong winds, temperatures in the 90s, and relative humidities in the 15 - 25% range will bring critical fire conditions today to Texas in the Austin-San Antonio region today, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Austin set a record high for the date yesterday, when the mercury climbed to 99°. Dry weather will dominate Texas for the coming week, but an increasing flow of moist air off the Gulf of Mexico next weekend may allow for a little drought relief 7 - 10 days from now. Texas' hurricane season is pretty much over; it is rare for tropical storms to affect Texas this late in the season. There is the potential the state could get moisture from an Eastern Pacific tropical storm, but there are probably only going to be 1 - 3 more storms in the Eastern Pacific this year, since activity in the basin is sharply lower during La Niña events.

Ophelia strengthens into the season's fourth hurricane
Hurricane Ophelia has strengthened into an respectable Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, making it the season's fourth hurricane and third major hurricane. The arrival of the season's fourth hurricane on September 29 is a week later than the average date for the season's fourth hurricane, which is September 21. This is a remarkably late date for a season boasting the 2nd greatest number of named storms ever recorded before October (sixteen). Typically, over 60% of all named storms intensify into hurricanes; this year, the percentage has been only 25%. This bizarre combination of a near-record number of named storms but only four hurricanes has led to a near-average year for total destructive potential, as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). We are about 7% above average for ACE for this point in the season, according to stats compiled by Dr. Ryan Maue. The combination of near-record warm sea surface temperatures but exceptionally dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic responsible for this year's odd hurricane season shows no signs of changing over the next few weeks. However, it's worth pointing out that the ocean regions north of 20°N latitude where Ophelia and Philippe are positioned have near-normal levels of atmospheric stability and dry air.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia continues to intensify. The hurricane has a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. Moderate wind shear due to upper-level west-southwesterly winds is slowing intensification, and shear is expected to remain moderate through Sunday. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 30% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and just a 1% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday, though the models have been trending towards keeping Ophelia farther offshore from Newfoundland in their recent runs. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 36% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.

Tropical Storm Philippe
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is expected to increase to a very high 30 - 40 knots Saturday through Monday, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear may be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday, though most of the models predict Philippe will survive the shear for the next five days. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it, since Philippe will be forced almost due west by a strong ridge of high pressure early next week. There is even a small chance (perhaps 5%) that Philippe could make a comeback from Ophelia's high shear and affect the U.S. East Coast or Bahama Islands late next week.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite-predicted rainfall amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 2 am EDT Saturday October 1, 2011, for Typhoon Nalgae. The typhoon is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain over Northern Luzon in the Philippines. This is probably an underestimate, given Nalgae's recent rapid intensification from Cat 2 to Cat 4. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Typhoon Nesat drenching Vietnam; Category 4 Typhoon Nalgae drenching the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat hit Vietnam today near Hanoi as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 43 people dead and 30 missing. The Philippines has a very bad case of deja-vu today, with Typhoon Nalgae already beginning to dump heavy rains on the main island of Luzon. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing over Luzon just to the north of the capital of Manila. Nalgae is expected to maintain its Category 4 strength until landfall, and will likely bring at least 4 - 8 inches of rain to Northern Luzon. While this may not be as wet a storm as Nesat, Nalgae's rains will be falling on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Wind damage is also a huge concern; Nagae's 135 mph winds are capable of causing widespread destruction on Luzon.

Jeff Masters

Drought Fault (36Bravo)
County Road 172 sliding into the ditch as a result of the prolonged drought.
Drought Fault
()
Wildfire in Jefferson, TX (gman195674)
Wildfire in Jefferson, TX

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610. WxLogic
11:37 GMT 2. Říjen 2011
Good Morning... nice cool start to the day today.
Member Since: 14-08-08 Posts: 4 Comments: 5032
609. HurricaneHunterJoe
17:59 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
if anyone can loop the bermuda radar,i think the eye will be visible coming north
Member Since: 18-09-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 5239
608. HurricaneHunterJoe
17:57 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Member Since: 18-09-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 5239
607. sunlinepr
17:27 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Member Since: 02-08-10 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
606. sunlinepr
17:26 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Member Since: 02-08-10 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
605. sunlinepr
17:23 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Member Since: 02-08-10 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
604. sunlinepr
17:20 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Member Since: 02-08-10 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
603. WeatherNerdPR
17:12 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 07-07-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
602. WeatherNerdPR
17:09 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Philippe looks better today.


Ophelia's looking good as well.
Member Since: 07-07-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
601. pottery
17:02 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
And just to clarify---

52% humidity is ridiculous for Oct 1st.
This is supposed to be the peak of the Rainy Season, when Tropical Waves, the ITCZ, and the warm SST's combine to dump endless rains here.

What we are getting is occasional cloudbursts.
None of those days and days of rainy drizzly weather.
And I dont remember when last we had a thunderstorm at night.
Used to be an Aug-Sept-Oct regular feature.
Member Since: 24-10-05 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
600. pottery
16:54 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



At any hint of a "Dry Season"
I recommend stocking up on
Rhum and other libations!

And what do you have against those Libations, in the Rainy Season????
Whether it rains or not, it's ALWAYS hot.
A continuous flow of Libations is absolutely Necessary!

:):))

Right now, at the Airport (piarco, in the search box above)--
Temp 93F
Humid. 52% edited

At my location---
Temp 93.6F
Humid. 54%

Libation Time!
Member Since: 24-10-05 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
599. wxgeek723
16:45 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.


Well Kate and Ophelia are both September crossovers. Omar was more significant being that it was mid October.
Member Since: 28-08-08 Posts: 79 Comments: 3654
598. Thrawst
16:28 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.


Sweet Jesus... that looks like a deadly MJO forecast. :P
Member Since: 18-07-10 Posts: 50 Comments: 1908
597. 7544
16:23 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
well our p strom will go fishing like all the rest have done time for the caribiean to get rolling it oct 1 ande the blog needs so mething good to track stay tuned
Member Since: 06-05-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
596. PlazaRed
16:07 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
583. 954FtLCane
Thank you. I was only wondering about how everything at the moment seems to be reflecting all that is bad and although it is easy to say observations are negative they are only observations based on the written words of the people who comment.
Ive been sat out in the sun on a quiet Saturday afternoon in 30/c,although a bit windy here but the thoughts must be that the negative comments are always in the majority, if you leave out the pure informative comments which only state facts as seen from the point of view of learned bloggers.
Over the time that I have been watching here it always seems that the negative comments predominate and this is maybe why so many people have left.
Member Since: 21-01-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2101
595. CaribBoy
16:06 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That wave south of Philippe has flared somewhat.


yes but will pass south of me
Member Since: 06-10-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
594. Tropicsweatherpr
16:03 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CaribBoy:


BORING AT THIS TIME !!!!


That wave south of Philippe has flared somewhat.
Member Since: 29-04-09 Posts: 75 Comments: 14600
593. Walshy
15:59 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting MoltenIce:
Is that snow?


Yes.

Hurricane force winds were reported on Grandfather Mountain last night and snow showers broke out above 4,500ft. Flurries reported as low as 3,000ft near Boone.
Member Since: 17-05-09 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
592. MoltenIce
15:51 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting Walshy:
Beech Mountain, North Carolina

Is that snow?
Member Since: 11-08-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
591. CaribBoy
15:51 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
1/oct/2011


BORING AT THIS TIME !!!!
Member Since: 06-10-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
590. WeatherNerdPR
15:50 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Good Morning.
1/oct/2011
Member Since: 07-07-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
589. Walshy
15:48 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Beech Mountain, North Carolina

Member Since: 17-05-09 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
588. Orcasystems
15:45 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: 01-10-07 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
587. CaribBoy
15:35 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Maybe will have a storm tracking like omar did.
Member Since: 06-10-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
586. CaribBoy
15:22 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.


I hope this will verify. 2 weeks without a drop of significant rain is not normal this time of year in the NE caribbean.
Member Since: 06-10-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6440
585. CaicosRetiredSailor
15:21 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting pottery:

Not so in Central ....
For July-Sept, we are 7" below average at my location.


The Old Heads there say we will get an "early dry season".
I hope they are wrong!



At any hint of a "Dry Season"
I recommend stocking up on
Rhum and other libations!
Member Since: 12-07-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6067
584. pottery
15:17 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting DDR:

Hello from Trinidad
It's currently 32.3 c
high humidity,rain is likely today,we are slightly above average in terms of rainfall,heading into la nina with a high chance again of above average rains over the next 3-4 months.

Not so in Central ....
For July-Sept, we are 7" below average at my location.

Long periods of very hot days (92-95) with occasional torrential cloudbursts.
On tuesday last, had a 40 minute downpour of 3.5"
Not a drop since then, although every day we see the dark clouds to the North and South and hear the thunder....

The downpours look good on the rainfall figures, but the truth is that the water runs off so fast and the following day is so hot that the ground is still relatively dry.

Was in Brasso Seco this week.
The Imortelles are flowering.
The Old Heads there say we will get an "early dryseason".
I hope they are wrong!
Member Since: 24-10-05 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
583. 954FtLCane
15:14 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting PlazaRed:
Morning Everybody,
Peace and tranquility for some of us this morning!
Everywhere I look today there are things bringing woe.
We have the typhoon,Nalgae,which is sure to be causing historical damage to all in its path with more to come? Texas with little hope of respite and now {I hope this is wrong!}with maybe another "9"years of drought conditions.
The UK has got +30?c so they have traffic congestion as people rush to the coasts in search of a last glimmering ray of watery sunshine before the arctic winter returns and they are assured that all snow gritters are chomping at the bit should blizzards strike early.
Here in southern Spain we have survived September without rain in my area, that's 6,months and now NOAA says its not going to be a wet start to the winter here. Today we have about 40MPH dry winds screaming past my window, humidity very low. Plus a possible volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands on the cards.
I just had a thought!That maybe some people could post a few comments on what is going well in their area at the moment?For a change that is!

uggg negative nagative....there are sooo many great things going on.... leaves changing colours in the midwest....first cold front of the season coming thru s fla tonight, a hurricane season that has been non-existent. I can go on & on how good things are happening all the time. Carpe Diem my friend....enjoy the day...seize the moment.. Breather brother/sister. Everyday we live life on this earth is another reason to say...WOW!!!! We can always find the negatives but sometimes take a look and see if you csa find the positives!
CARPE DIEM!
Member Since: 30-09-08 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
582. ackee
14:52 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting Drakoen:
Many of the dynamic MJO forecast models forecast for a moderate to powerful MJO heading into our basin which could easily make the month of October quite active. Certainly would not be out of the question for 2011 to produce between 19-21 named storms rivaling the 2nd and 3rd busiests hurricane seasons ever recorded.
agree given that we have seen lot system take a more northerly track because of a weaker HIGH I think any thing that does form in the carrb may track more N or NE guess we see
Member Since: 15-07-08 Posts: 0 Comments: 1376
581. AussieStorm
14:50 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
570. If this is your idea of uneventful, I would seriously dread to see your idea of eventful.

Some people are not satisfied with 10billion $$$$ storms, they want death and destruction like what happened with Andrew and Katrina and Ike.
Member Since: 30-09-07 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
580. MoltenIce
14:45 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
She's tiny.
Member Since: 11-08-10 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
579. Drakoen
14:39 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Many of the dynamic MJO forecast models forecast for a moderate to powerful MJO heading into our basin which could easily make the month of October quite active. Certainly would not be out of the question for 2011 to produce between 19-21 named storms rivaling the 2nd and 3rd busiests hurricane seasons ever recorded.
Member Since: 28-10-06 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
578. Skyepony (Mod)
14:39 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Nalgae flew across the Philippines while I slept. That's good news for them. I nailed the landfall.. & look at how (MIMIC) when it came out on the west side in that Bay..how it affected the path.
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 197 Comments: 38787
577. WeatherfanPR
14:36 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
the cool temps arrived at Carrollwood, Tampa, upper 60s this morning. I had to put a jacket to take the dogs out. When I was outside I saw that people were in t-shirts and shorts and I was wearing a jacket LOL remember that I'am not used to this temps, bad news for me that the forecast for tomorrow is lower temps and I'm already with flu symptoms.
Member Since: 23-08-06 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
576. Neapolitan
14:30 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Everything has a way of balancing out.

I wish it were so, but, no, they really don't. For instance, since January 1--that is, including the two coldest months of the calendar year--new record daily high temperatures across the US have outnumbered new record daily low temperatures by 15,225 to 5,406, or a bit over 2.8 to 1. That's really not very balanced, is it? ;-)
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.

2011's ACE--one measurement of how active a particular storm and/or season is--will be well over 90 by the end of the day. That's already more ACE than 32 of the last 61 seasons managed to pull together--including five seasons since 1995, the start of the current "active" period in the tropics. And, of course, the record is 16-4-3. That's more total named storms than 55 of those past 61 seasons, and the same amount as two more. By the time the year is over, 2011 will safely be in second place so far as that goes. 2011's total hurricane count is a bit anemic, but so far as major hurricanes go, only 15 of the past 61 seasons have seen more than the current three. Add to that the 110 or so deaths and $17 billion or so in damage attributed to tropical activity, and I'd have to say that I'm just not seeing this year as being what you call "boring, uneventful, noneventful, weak, and pathetic". Could you please explain what you mean in a little more detail?

BTW: anyone who thinks it's "uneventful" here can always fly down to the Philippines; I think the poor people in those islands would like a long spell of "boring" right about now. ;-)
Member Since: 08-11-09 Posts: 4 Comments: 13629
575. CybrTeddy
14:27 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
guess not.
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
574. CaicosRetiredSailor
14:25 GMT 1. Říjen 2011


Ophelia



HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Member Since: 12-07-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6067
573. CybrTeddy
14:25 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Looking back on the vertical instability issue for the last few weeks with some research, and of all the years so far that I've come across - 2007 sticks out the most of all years. While the pattern setup was much different that year, you had a lot of dry air across the basin that caused most of those storms to be weak. 2007 ended up with 15 named storms and only 2 major hurricanes - but both where complete monsters.
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
572. GainesvilleGator
14:18 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Fall has finally arrived in Gainesville, FL. Cool temperatures, low humidity and blue sky. Here are Low/High temps next five days: Sat 50/82, Sun 51/80, Mon 53/81, Tue 59/84, Wed 63/85. It looks like a perfect week weather wise. If you live in FL then you know what I am talking about.
Member Since: 11-09-05 Posts: 4 Comments: 745
571. CybrTeddy
14:15 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
570. If this is your idea of uneventful, I would seriously dread to see your idea of eventful.
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
569. CybrTeddy
14:10 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
CybrTeddy, you seem to know your stuff. Maybe not as good as Levi or Stormchaser2007, but you do alright.

I have a question. Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.


I think its fairly simple. And I would hardly call this season uneventful, see here for your example.. .we all should have gotten our fair taste of death and destruction in the US this year, but several bloggers on here seem to think this isn't enough - that Ike's and Katrina's are the norms.

Most of our storms this season have formed off frontal boundaries off the US East Coast, I have complained in the past seasons of the lack of these interesting systems, however this season appears to be the exact opposite of that. There is also the lack of vertical instability to blame in the tropical Atlantic. I personally however, find this season very interesting.

I don't think its any more difficult to understand than that. And this season isn't over, it is very possible perhaps the most dangerous part of 2011 has yet to even come, when these monsoonal systems in the SW start to get going.
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
568. AvidWeatherHound
14:07 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
CybrTeddy, you seem to know your stuff. Maybe not as good as Levi or Stormchaser2007, but you do alright.

I have a question. Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.


Try selling that nonsense to the good people of NC. Hardly uneventful.
Member Since: 05-09-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
567. RussianWinter
13:57 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
CybrTeddy, you seem to know your stuff. Maybe not as good as Levi or Stormchaser2007, but you do alright.

I have a question. Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.

?
Perhaps you forgot Irene and Lee.
In terms of wind at landfall and appearance, sure they were uneventful, but they did cause storm surge and brought plenty of rain and destroyed many a home by flooding.
Member Since: 21-08-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
566. outofdablue
13:56 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Off scale.
what does the MJO look like for the GOM any possibility of rain for TX?
Member Since: 29-07-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
565. JNCali
13:56 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good morning to all, 61 here currently with 35 percent humidity, welcome to the new desert. LOL

Hey bohonk. smokey in your area?
Member Since: 09-09-10 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
563. aspectre
13:52 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
BTW: That island south of CapeBreton is a bird (and feral horse) sanctuary which is uninhabited except for "four Environment Canada station personnel and one resident researcher."
Member Since: 21-08-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
562. CybrTeddy
13:52 GMT 1. Říjen 2011
Quoting outofdablue:

Is the white area in the carribian in the middle of that scale or off that scale?


Off scale.
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.