Weekend tornado outbreak: 1 EF-4, 2 EF-3s, 6 dead, damage near $300 million

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT 16. Duben 2012

Share this Blog
27
+

Damage surveys continue in the Plains in the wake of Saturday's major tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 110 preliminary tornado reports, with an additional 10 reports from Sunday. At least one tornado was a violent EF-4, which hit mostly unpopulated areas in Ellsworth County, Kansas. The only fatalities from the outbreak occurred in Woodward, Oklahoma, where an EF-3 tornado hit at night after lightning knocked out the town's tornado sirens. Six people were killed, three of them children. A preliminary rating of EF-3 has also been given to a tornado that hit the south and southeast portions of Wichita, Kansas near 10:30 pm CDT Saturday night. The tornado did significant damage to McConnell AFB and to a nearby trailer park. All of the residents of the trailer park were in the trail park's tornado shelter, which undoubtedly saved many lives. Two residents required hospitalization. Damage from the Wichita tornado has been estimated at $283 million.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the EF-3 tornado that hit the south side of Wichita, Kansas, causing damage estimated at $283 million.


Video 1. Storm chaser video of one of Saturday's impressive tornadoes near Salina, Kansas. At about the 3 minute mark, you'll see what appear to be cows moving very fast in a mighty tail wind.


Video 2. Storm chaser video of the nighttime Wichita, Kansas tornado of April 14, 2012.

New dire language in tornado warnings
National Weather Service offices in several states in the Plains are experimenting this year with new wording in public advisories when a particularly dangerous tornado has touched down. If spotters confirm that a large and damaging tornado is on the ground, the NWS has the option of including some rather dire wording to get the public to take action. About 3/4 of all tornado warnings are false alarms. This primarily occurs because the NWS will issue a warning for a rotating thunderstorm spotted on radar, and these thunderstorms don't always have funnel clouds that reach to the ground. But when spotters actually verify that a tornado is on the ground, and that tornado has a long history of causing damage, issuance of one the new direly-worded advisories may help give the public the message that this tornado is not going to be a false alarm and they better take it seriously. Such an advisory was issued for Saturday's Wichita, Kansas tornado, which turned out to be an EF-3 that caused major but not catastrophic damage. The dire wording of the advisory predicted the type of damage associated with a violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, "with complete devastation likely." The damage from this tornado fell short of that mark, but I believe it was a reasonable usage of the new type of advisory:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1033 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL BUTLER AND EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR EAST WICHITA...

AT 1031 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL
BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE
TO SURVIVORS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...PARK CITY...NORTHEAST WICHITA...ANDOVER...BEL AIRE...KECHI...JABARA AIRPORT AND BENTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH COMPLETE DEVASTATION LIKELY. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. DO NOT DELAY...SEEK SHELTER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STRUCTURE...OR IF TIME ALLOWS...CONSIDER MOVING TO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER ELSEWHERE. MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS WILL OFFER NO SHELTER FROM THIS TORNADO.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

Jeff Masters

Night tornado (Andrewbre)
Night tornado in Manchester,OK
Night tornado
Lightning over Houston (SurfYak)
A thunderstorm passes through Houston early Monday morning with lots of amazing lightning. I'm probably going to regret getting up to take this photo later today. :). For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here. For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.
Lightning over Houston
()
Storm Damage (dhennem)
Damage from the storm that came through Thurman, Iowa last night. TV says 70% to 90% of the town is destroyed.
Storm Damage

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 480 - 430

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

480. Skyepony (Mod)
15:44 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Who's attacking you personally? I'm talking about your observation with sample size one with one link to file hosting site.

Given the chaotic nature of weather, you can come up with just about any kind of random "pattern" you want and still get something that looks like it lines up every once in a while. This holds true for any chaotic data, including stock "prediction" algorithms. Hind-casting is easy, prediction is the difficult part.

The point is, it takes a lot more research (including reviews for other experts in the field) and definitely a lot more observations to back up any scientific claims. These correlation grids based on geometry are a far cry from that.


I think this has been a good start. We've watched him come up with other shapes on maps, for other events. I've watched this evolve, it's getting more detailed. The way that was done with the tornado out break was interesting cause I could scroll through & see it move & plumes explode within boundaries already outlined by rectangles. It's natural math & physics in shapes. It's partly what I've always imagined when forecasting...things tend toward patterns, like three cyclones in a row. Some people can see & do math on a way higher level with shapes & colors. I glimpse it, but far from fully grasp it. But what if one of these geniuses that fully gets it taught it to computers to use the big picture shapes & colors to simplify the runs so they could run that much more info for each model run? Even the text of the tutorial ends with questions. This is in no way trying to even sound like a peer reviewed idea. In the past here we've come up with ideas that have gone on to be others thesis or peer reviewed papers. It could be the next great thing in models or not.. I'd like to see it run it's course, he's not making any claims, not really trolling, they have all been done on maps where the lat/log are curved & I'm partial to the rainbow maps. There's getting to be a trend toward bashing people seeing things in clouds..shapes, demons, numbers..some of us will never be convinced that just because you don't see them that Sky ponies don't exist:)
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
479. PedleyCA
14:59 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Plaza Red - 475

The "quarter," from Mexico to the Aleutians is sort of left out of this at the moment, I hope it stays that way for you's.

I am about 20-25 miles from the San Andreas fault. The San Bernardino part of it. (Southern Calif) I always cringe when people mention that we haven't had one lately. Thank you for saying the opposite (wishing nothing). So ya doing well there? Have you got your web pages behaving?
Member Since: 29-02-12 Posts: 0 Comments: 6227
478. CybrTeddy
13:44 GMT 17. Duben 2012
FWIW, 2009 v. 2012.

April 16th, 2012. (SST)


April 17th, 2012. (SST)


April 16th, 2012 (TCHP)


April 17th, 2012 (TCHP)



MUCH warmer than in 2009 and for that matter, 2006. GOMEX is warmer than any year too, which leads me to believe that we're going to see a few more named storms than what we saw in 2009. Don't be surprised though if most of the 10 or 11 named this year happens before the peak of hurricane season.
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
477. PlazaRed
13:00 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:
What I would like to see is a thunderstorm that would look like this:

and would bring 5 to 6 inches of rain in a couple hours turning my yard into this:



Yes that thunderstorm happened last year and caused that flooding, it dumped roughly 5 to 6 inches within 2 hours, it also was tornado warned and produced 60 mph winds here and incredible lightning that caused a fire about a mile away, and that's me standing in the flood waters afterward.


I would really like to see some of this above return instead of all this drought :)

I saw a thunderstorm like that once and I don't want to see another!Black, almost like night, lightning every few seconds, incredible noise and worst of all the roar of the rivers with boulders in them.
14 inches of rain in 5 hours, everything except big rocks washed away, devastation that can't be imagined unless you lived through it! 1999 I think.
I wish I could have stood in the floodwater's but they were 14 feet deep and moving at about 40 miles an hour.
Member Since: 21-01-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
476. Tropicsweatherpr
12:57 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Sorry, don't have any good ones. Since they decomissioned the old NCEP Analysis Page I have not seen a page where they replacate the standard GFS graphics with the parallel run. The data in grib format is available at:
www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/para
One would need to create their own forecast graphics from that data, way above my paygrade.


Ok,thanks again.
Member Since: 29-04-09 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
475. PlazaRed
12:44 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We also had a 7.0 in Papua New Guinea... Thankfully it was deep though

Morning everyone.

After my time by the hands of your clocks, I was on a roof, fixing it when that happened but this outbreak of "quakeisums" is a bit unusual, they are scattered all over the pacific ring and we have had a few in the Med. area as well, thought less intense.
The "quarter," from Mexico to the Aleutians is sort of left out of this at the moment, I hope it stays that way for you's.
Sun streaming down here in Southern Europe and we also had tornado's in Jaen north of Granada and Tarragona south of Barcelona on Saturday, not to be left out of the action. Nothing remotely like what the central states had though.
Oh! Happy Tuesday for some reason!
Member Since: 21-01-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
474. nrtiwlnvragn
12:43 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

nrtiwlnvragn,do you have the link to the GFS Parallel site? Thanks in advance.


Sorry, don't have any good ones. Since they decomissioned the old NCEP Analysis Page I have not seen a page where they replacate the standard GFS graphics with the parallel run. The data in grib format is available at:
www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/para
One would need to create their own forecast graphics from that data, way above my paygrade.
Member Since: 23-09-05 Posts: 15 Comments: 11342
473. StormTracker2K
12:34 GMT 17. Duben 2012
It seems as if a couple of factors are coming together to jump start more regular rains across FL and here they are below.



Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
472. biff4ugo
12:21 GMT 17. Duben 2012
to 418
"a monkey with an etch-a-sketch" is not an ad hominem attack?
No, it is a Hominidae attack. Easy mistake.
Member Since: 28-12-06 Posts: 116 Comments: 1604
471. StormTracker2K
12:18 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting biff4ugo:
Yes, after today the forecast says RAIN RAIN RAIN, like summer is finally here with a frontal bonus on saturday. But New Orleans keeps getting the rain and the front keeps switching from east progression to north.
Somebody in Texas, please kick it over to Florida. I'm tired of mowing weeds in the dry lake bottom and hearing the raspy crunch of the crispy grass on my lawn.


Rain's a coming but so is also the severe wx potential. Lots of shear across FL on Sunday.

Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
470. Tropicsweatherpr
12:18 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Levi32:
You know it's that time of year when this stuff starts showing up on the long-range GFS. This model has been hinting at the central-eastern Caribbean being the most favorable spot for any possible May mischief. Right now it is probably just getting early quirks out of its system.



Hi Levi.You think something may form in the area by early May?
Member Since: 29-04-09 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
469. biff4ugo
12:09 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Yes, after today the forecast says RAIN RAIN RAIN, like summer is finally here with a frontal bonus on saturday. But New Orleans keeps getting the rain and the front keeps switching from east progression to north.
Somebody in Texas, please kick it over to Florida. I'm tired of mowing weeds in the dry lake bottom and hearing the raspy crunch of the crispy grass on my lawn.
Member Since: 28-12-06 Posts: 116 Comments: 1604
468. MAweatherboy1
11:56 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have my doubts about this system...it's still highly frontal in nature and running out of time to develop before it's swept up by another front.


I would say it is out of time if it ever had a chance at all... It looks exactly the same as yesterday... SST's are way to cool and it just can't get itself off that front.
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
467. StormTracker2K
11:47 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're doing a good job, keep tabs on it for us.


Thank you! I think this is going to pan out and if it does many in FL will be thankfull as this could be a significant rain maker.
Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
466. GTcooliebai
11:42 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
. MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPS
UP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCE
EXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIES
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
You're doing a good job, keep tabs on it for us.
Member Since: 31-08-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
465. Xyrus2000
11:41 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting wxmojo:


They are simply observations, my friend. I don't understand all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks for simply presenting some rather curious observations.


Who's attacking you personally? I'm talking about your observation with sample size one with one link to file hosting site.

Given the chaotic nature of weather, you can come up with just about any kind of random "pattern" you want and still get something that looks like it lines up every once in a while. This holds true for any chaotic data, including stock "prediction" algorithms. Hind-casting is easy, prediction is the difficult part.

The point is, it takes a lot more research (including reviews for other experts in the field) and definitely a lot more observations to back up any scientific claims. These correlation grids based on geometry are a far cry from that.
Member Since: 31-10-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 1655
464. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:40 GMT 17. Duben 2012
I have my doubts about this system...it's still highly frontal in nature and running out of time to develop before it's swept up by another front.

Member Since: 06-07-10 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
463. CybrTeddy
11:40 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD


Bring.. it.. ON!
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
462. LargoFl
11:39 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD
we will have to watch this develop carefully, but we need all the rain we can get
Member Since: 06-08-11 Posts: 4 Comments: 42072
461. CybrTeddy
11:36 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Farewell Space Shuttle Discovery!
Member Since: 08-07-05 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
460. StormTracker2K
11:35 GMT 17. Duben 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
. MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPS
UP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCE
EXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIES
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
459. weatherh98
11:33 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Happy Tuesday! Good morning
Member Since: 17-06-11 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
458. StormTracker2K
11:32 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD
Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
457. Tropicsweatherpr
11:30 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Good morning to all.

nrtiwlnvragn,do you have the link to the GFS Parallel site? Thanks in advance.
Member Since: 29-04-09 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
456. Patrap
11:26 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Member Since: 03-07-05 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
455. aislinnpaps
11:15 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Wishing everyone a wonderful Tuesday!
Member Since: 22-08-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
454. GTcooliebai
11:02 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Space Shuttle Discovery to take off one last time enroute to the Washington Smithsonian. Takeoff set for 7:06 am.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/new s/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/4/17 /discovery_departs

It just took off as per the video clip on TWC.
Member Since: 31-08-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
453. GTcooliebai
10:59 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Space Shuttle Discovery to take off one last time enroute to the Washington Smithsonian. Takeoff set for 7:06 am.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/new s/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/4/17 /discovery_departs

Member Since: 31-08-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
452. LargoFl
10:48 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Have your NOAA Radios ready this weekend in FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
00Z MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTING
OUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD ON FRIDAY THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT
SHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
.
yESSSSSSSSSS
Member Since: 06-08-11 Posts: 4 Comments: 42072
451. StormTracker2K
10:30 GMT 17. Duben 2012
GFS precip outlook!

Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
450. StormTracker2K
10:28 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Have your NOAA Radios ready this weekend in FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
00Z MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTING
OUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD ON FRIDAY THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT
SHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
.
Member Since: 26-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
449. MAweatherboy1
10:28 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:
Heres something to wake up too:-

MAP 6.7 2012/04/17 03:50:17 -32.701 -71.484 37.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

Another well over 6.5

We also had a 7.0 in Papua New Guinea... Thankfully it was deep though

Morning everyone.
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
448. Skyepony (Mod)
10:15 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Being April & how MJO should be nearing & passing through null the next 2 weeks or so, climo would suggest the best chance for invest being the area of 99S to the other side of the Hemisphere in that region. There is that 1 in 27 shot something off the east coast.
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
447. Skyepony (Mod)
09:56 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
446. LargoFl
09:49 GMT 17. Duben 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-180945-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
445 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE MAY BE CALLING UPON RIGS TO REPORT SEVERE CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK.

$$

SWEENEY
Member Since: 06-08-11 Posts: 4 Comments: 42072
445. Skyepony (Mod)
09:24 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting geepy86:
Two swirly things.


It was the solution the gfs had stuck too. It calls for the swirly thing on the right to absorb the one on the left. Judging structure & all, seems the right bet.
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
444. LargoFl
09:13 GMT 17. Duben 2012
snipped this from YoloHub site............Does it seem to you like there has been an unusual amount of seismic activity around the world lately? Well, it isn’t just your imagination. The Ring of Fire is roaring to life and that is really bad news for the west coast of the United States. Approximately 90 percent of all earthquakes and approximately 75 percent of all volcanic eruptions occur along the Ring of Fire. Considering the fact that the entire west coast of the United States lies along the Ring of Fire, we should be very concerned that the Ring of Fire is becoming more active. On Wednesday, the most powerful strike-slip earthquake ever recorded happened along the Ring of Fire. If that earthquake had happened in a major U.S. city along the west coast, the city would have been entirely destroyed. Scientists tell us that there is nearly a 100% certainty that the “Big One” will hit California at some point. In recent years we have seen Japan, Chile, Indonesia and New Zealand all get hit by historic earthquakes. It is inevitable that there will be earthquakes of historic importance on the west coast of the United States as well. So far we have been very fortunate, but that good fortune will not last indefinitely.
Member Since: 06-08-11 Posts: 4 Comments: 42072
443. LargoFl
09:06 GMT 17. Duben 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
427 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-172030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
427 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHEAST
WIND TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.
BEACH VISITORS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS
BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. NEVER SWIM ALONE... ESPECIALLY AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING
QUICKLY MAKING CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

WIMMER
Member Since: 06-08-11 Posts: 4 Comments: 42072
442. OracleDeAtlantis
08:15 GMT 17. Duben 2012
It looks like the earth has a bad belly ache.

I wonder how long before she vomits ...



Member Since: 27-08-09 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
441. SWFLgazer
08:03 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:
Has anyone ever wondered what Mt. Rushmore looks like from the Canadian side?

Well here you go:





:)



Where'd you get that? I'd like to send it along.

Might as well make someone else clean up their monitor, too.
Member Since: 14-08-06 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
440. Levi32
07:13 GMT 17. Duben 2012
You know it's that time of year when this stuff starts showing up on the long-range GFS. This model has been hinting at the central-eastern Caribbean being the most favorable spot for any possible May mischief. Right now it is probably just getting early quirks out of its system.

Member Since: 24-11-05 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
439. PlazaRed
05:49 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Heres something to wake up too:-

MAP 6.7 2012/04/17 03:50:17 -32.701 -71.484 37.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

Another well over 6.5
Member Since: 21-01-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
438. geepy86
05:37 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Two swirly things.
Member Since: 19-08-08 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
437. Skyepony (Mod)
05:15 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Fresh OSCAT
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
436. VAbeachhurricanes
05:10 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Reason to worry?

Mexico raises alert for Popocatepetl volcano
Member Since: 06-09-07 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
435. KoritheMan
05:02 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
Niño 4


-
0.2
ºC

Niño 3.4

-
0.3
ºC

Ni
ño 3


0.5
ºC

N
iño

1+2


1.9ºC




Nino 1+2 shows strong El nino LOL


This probably has something to do with it...

Member Since: 07-03-07 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
434. Tazmanian
05:00 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Niño 4


-
0.2
ºC

Niño 3.4

-
0.3
ºC

Ni
ño 3


0.5
ºC

N
iño

1+2


1.9ºC




Nino 1+2 shows strong El nino LOL
Member Since: 21-05-06 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
433. Skyepony (Mod)
04:43 GMT 17. Duben 2012
ASCAT
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
432. Skyepony (Mod)
04:42 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Member Since: 10-08-05 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
431. KoritheMan
04:29 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



Is it even on anymore? I thought they stopped airing it a while ago? It was among my favorites haha


I think it still airs on Boomerang now and then, but I'm not a subscriber there, so I could be wrong.

Actually, I have it on DVD.
Member Since: 07-03-07 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
430. wxmod
04:12 GMT 17. Duben 2012
Modifying the weather Pacific off Oregon today. MODIS satellite photo



Member Since: 04-10-11 Posts: 0 Comments: 1770

Viewing: 480 - 430

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Zataženo

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron