Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:00 GMT 28. Duben 2012

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At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1081. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


did it cause waffle shortages?,
If not the '09 one was worse ;)
Look. We both know that if there was in fact, a shortage of waffles, none of us would be here to talk about it....Waffles, relatively speaking, are the only reason why humans exist today....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Saharan Air Layer, the dry air that comes off Africa.
I know what SAL is, freak. I just wanted to know what SAL there was to be seen in the imagery. or maybe I was being too sarcastic, I dunno....

Member Since: 25-10-05 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
1079. nigel20
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nigel, this is part of this afternoon's discussion by the NWS San Juan. Interesting talk of the different model scenarios.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE FINDING A WORKABLE
SOLUTION FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS BEGINS DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. UNFORTUNATELY THESE SCENARIOS EACH
DEVELOP VERY DIFFERENT WINDS FOR PUERTO RICO WHICH WOULD CHANGE
THE RAINFALL PATTERNS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT A SOLUTION LESS EXTREME
THAN EITHER WITH EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST WINDS AND A FAIRLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. NEITHER SOLUTION WOULD BRING
ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED...LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS.

Very interesting...the models are split on the outlook for Puerto Rico
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
1078. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
97W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


No Active Tropical Warnings
April-29-12, 3:30:01 PM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
As of Sun, 29 Apr 2012 19:30:01 GMT
Member Since: 15-07-06 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Interesting...very interesting. What's the rate at which the barometer has been falling in mb/hour?
Looks like it took the trough about 4 or 5 hours to pass through here last night. This thing is going nowhere fast...

Member Since: 25-10-05 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
1076. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
What SAL??


Yeah, there is nothing much in terms of SAL in the eastern atlantic
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
Gaston actually washed out a portion of a street in downtown Richmond.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
What SAL??



Saharan Air Layer, the dry air that comes off Africa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1073. nigel20
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



and what do you think about this coming Hurricane Season ?

The ENSO models are split so I don't know what the hurricane season will be like...though most of the models are predicting neutral conditions
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?

An early look at the SAL
What SAL??

Member Since: 25-10-05 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
Nigel, this is part of this afternoon's discussion by the NWS San Juan. Interesting talk of the different model scenarios.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS IS HAVING TROUBLE FINDING A WORKABLE
SOLUTION FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS BEGINS DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. UNFORTUNATELY THESE SCENARIOS EACH
DEVELOP VERY DIFFERENT WINDS FOR PUERTO RICO WHICH WOULD CHANGE
THE RAINFALL PATTERNS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT A SOLUTION LESS EXTREME
THAN EITHER WITH EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST WINDS AND A FAIRLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. NEITHER SOLUTION WOULD BRING
ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED...LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the worst i remember were the floods in GA in 2009, We had TS FAY drop 10 inches one day, and 10-13 inches fell from leftover moisture on some other days, with lots of training thunderstorms.
The raindrops were huge and i remember it sounded like it was hailing sometimes.
We ended with 21.1 inches at my house, and every creek, depression, and even some flat places were flooded.


TS Gaston in 04 when it blew through here in Richmond VA actually strengthened when it passed over us, and as it changed from a northerly direction to a NE direction. The center passed just to our east. When that happened,we had several hours of torrential rains that lasted into the overnight period. In just a few hours we picked up over a foot of rain.



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Quoting nigel20:

I'm ready for the hurricane season, but i'm not sure if it will be below average



and what do you think about this coming Hurricane Season ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1068. nigel20
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hey Nigel... I'm savoring every minute of it knowing it's back to school tomorrow! It's a great day up here... A little chilly but sunny.

Good to know
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
seems to be getting its act together invest?
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Quoting hydrus:
Worse Georgia floods I remember was in 94 when Alberto and Beryl hit. Another huge disaster for a lot of people.A lberto basically did a big loop over Western Georgia...Then Beryl came...


did it cause waffle shortages?,
If not the '09 one was worse ;)
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Hello everyone. Are we ready for a below average Hurricane Season ? No matter what happens, we need to be ready. Every season brings new stories and this one will not be the exception.

On the other hand, I would like to know and maybe others also want to know which one of you is a Certified Meteorologist or Meteorology Student.


Well...I took a Meteorology Minor in case Mechanical Engineering didn't work out. Well...I am an Engineer but still fascinated with tropical weather since Hurricane Fran hit my home in 1996....
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Quoting nigel20:

What's up MAwb1...how are you enjoying your weekend?

Hey Nigel... I'm savoring every minute of it knowing it's back to school tomorrow! It's a great day up here... A little chilly but sunny.
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 82 Comments: 7630
1063. nigel20
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Hello everyone. Are we ready for a below average Hurricane Season ? No matter what happens, we need to be ready. Every season brings new stories and this one will not be the exception.

On the other hand, I would like to know and maybe others also want to know which one of you is a Certified Meteorologist or Meteorology Student.

I'm ready for the hurricane season, but i'm not sure if it will be below average
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
Quoting klew136:


Just to let you know I check barometer now 1015


Interesting...very interesting. What's the rate at which the barometer has been falling in mb/hour?
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1061. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Except for Mountain Dew and Gatorade, Pepsi is not so hot here in Atlanta,(for obvious reasons)
Still, no hard feeling to PCola57
This system by florida should go NE right?
no into the gulf,nw
Member Since: 06-08-11 Posts: 4 Comments: 36984
1060. nigel20
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Very low... Less than 10% IMO

What's up MAwb1...how are you enjoying your weekend?
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
1059. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the worst i remember were the floods in GA in 2009, We had TS FAY drop 10 inches one day, and 10-13 inches fell from leftover moisture on some other days, with lots of training thunderstorms.
The raindrops were huge and i remember it sounded like it was hailing sometimes.
We ended with 21.1 inches at my house, and every creek, depression, and even some flat places were flooded.
Worse Georgia floods I remember was in 94 when Alberto and Beryl hit. Another huge disaster for a lot of people.Alberto basically did a big loop over Western Georgia...Then Beryl came...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello everyone. Are we ready for a below average Hurricane Season ? No matter what happens, we need to be ready. Every season brings new stories and this one will not be the exception.

On the other hand, I would like to know and maybe others also want to know which one of you is a Certified Meteorologist or Meteorology Student.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1057. klew136
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


dag nabbit....I meant 80 degrees west...LOL. This is what happens when you type too fast...


Just to let you know I check barometer now 1015
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Any chance of this feature to become a minimum tropical depression?,it seems to be moving very slow!! if at all?.

Very low... Less than 10% IMO
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 82 Comments: 7630
Any chance of this feature to become a minimum tropical depression?,it seems to be moving very slow!! if at all?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1054. nigel20
Quoting hydrus:
Wow..In June of 1992 a T.D. dropped 25 inches of rain in 3 and a half days at my location....what a mess..10 feet of water will float a large sail boat..:)

Central Jamaica had up to 37 inches from tropical storm Nicole in 2010

Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
1053. hydrus
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


dag nabbit....I meant 80 degrees west...LOL. This is what happens when you type too fast...
I actually knew what you meant.. I wuz humorin u...:)
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Quoting hydrus:
20 degrees west..sse of the Azores..:)


dag nabbit....I meant 80 degrees west...LOL. This is what happens when you type too fast...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i hope to be a meteorology student in a few years, so i can double major in that and Mathematics.




Good for you, I wish you success !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Wow..In June of 1992 a T.D. dropped 25 inches of rain in 3 and a half days at my location....what a mess..


the worst i remember were the floods in GA in 2009, We had TS FAY drop 10 inches one day, and 10-13 inches fell from leftover moisture on some other days, with lots of training thunderstorms.
The raindrops were huge and i remember it sounded like it was hailing sometimes.
We ended with 21.1 inches at my house, and every creek, depression, and even some flat places were flooded.
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
1049. ncstorm
I believe the models are going to be playing catch up..the 12Z Euro has this still at the keys on Tuesday and then moving over to Texas into next week..





a low off the NC coast
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1048. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


That was something. There were places that got more than 16 inches though. I remember waking up during the night and I don't think I have ever seen rain like that before. In a two hour period it was like 7 inches. State Rd 84 was under water and we could not go from Dade to Broward County. The cows in Davie were up to their neck for days and many had to be put away. Our backyard had 10 feet of water and the front was covered right up to the door (about 4 feet).

Miami airport was under a couple feet of water. I have not seen anything like it since. With the exception of one in October in the early 90's. I don't remember the year.
Wow..In June of 1992 a T.D. dropped 25 inches of rain in 3 and a half days at my location....what a mess..10 feet of water will float a large sail boat..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Hello everyone. Are we ready for a below average Hurricane Season ? No matter what happens, we need to be ready. Every season brings new stories and this one will not be the exception.

On the other hand, I would like to know and maybe others also want to know which one of you is a Certified Meteorologist or Meteorology Student.


i hope to be a meteorology student in a few years, so i can double major in that and Mathematics.

Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
1046. hydrus
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


BINGO! I see a very tight swirl just emerging just W of 20W...and just S of 25N. The very tight swirl is midway between the upper Keys and Cuba....

I am still watiting for proof in surface obs. Without the surface obs confirming/denying...we all know the National Hurricane Center isn't going to get excited....
20 degrees west..sse of the Azores..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello everyone. Are we ready for a below average Hurricane Season ? No matter what happens, we need to be ready. Every season brings new stories and this one will not be the exception.

On the other hand, I would like to know and maybe others also want to know which one of you is a Certified Meteorologist or Meteorology Student.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Except for Mountain Dew and Gatorade, Pepsi is not so hot here in Atlanta,(for obvious reasons)
Still, no hard feeling to PCola57
This system by florida should go NE right?
Member Since: 11-02-12 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Link
Anyone else see the cirrculation?


BINGO! I see a very tight swirl just emerging just W of 20W...and just S of 25N. The very tight swirl is midway between the upper Keys and Cuba....

I am still watiting for proof in surface obs. Without the surface obs confirming/denying...we all know the National Hurricane Center isn't going to get excited....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1042. Grothar
Quoting seflagamma:
nrti, that is it!!! Thank you so much. I knew I remember that event and I had not even moved down here yet.



many WU friends are on FB and we are talking weather... but nothing as good as info here.


I put this info on my FB wall and gave you credit for finding it.. of course I used your "handle" not name.

Thank you..



That was something. There were places that got more than 16 inches though. I remember waking up during the night and I don't think I have ever seen rain like that before. In a two hour period it was like 7 inches. State Rd 84 was under water and we could not go from Dade to Broward County. The cows in Davie were up to their neck for days and many had to be put away. Our backyard had 10 feet of water and the front was covered right up to the door (about 4 feet).

Miami airport was under a couple feet of water. I have not seen anything like it since. With the exception of one in October in the early 90's. I don't remember the year.
Member Since: 17-07-09 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REMAIN EASTERLY ON BOTH SIDE
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH NO HINT OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1550 UTC SHOWED
E-NE WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA...WELL N OF
FLORIDA BAY. THE 12Z GFS CARRIES 25 KT N-NE WINDS S OF NAPLES AT
1800 UTC TODAY. OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT THESE WINDS WHICH
APPEARS TO BE A BI-PRODUCT OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES WITH THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE UKMET SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GFS AND WAITS
TO INCREASE WINDS TO 25 KT UNTIL LATE MON. THE TREND IN THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD MAINTAINING STRONGER RIDGING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...MAKING FOR A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE. THE 12Z
UKMET IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN IN ENDING THE 20 KT WINDS
AND SEAS AT OR OVER 8 FT IN THE NE GULF AFTER 1800 UTC WED.
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Link
Anyone else see the cirrculation?
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1038. nigel20
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Latest Miami NWS Discussion

Thanks much Geo
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874
1037. hydrus
Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?

An early look at the SAL
Not much on this end. Quite warm here with temps in the 80,s. Almost 5 inches of rain for West Palm.
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Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?

An early look at the SAL


A non factor at the present time.
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1035. hydrus
Quoting LargoFl:
I dont believe these totals at all, but then again, one side of the street is dry, the other is in pouring rain, so it depends on where the water gauge is..........
To bad the whole state did not get a soaking. I do not like it when it is so dry in Florida.
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Quoting bappit:

So all that moisture is headed to the upper Texas coast?


Not so sure...if the surface trough lives long enough to make it there...the upper trough that spawned it will have been long gone. The upper trough is crucial in creating upper divergence/lift for rainfall along the surface trough. By the time the surface trough makes it to Texas (if it does)...there will be a lot of shear and no upper divergence to help make it rain.
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Latest Miami NWS Discussion
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I wonder how long it has to potentially become one.


IMO...if one goes strictly on how the models evolve the 200 mb upper-level winds...it only has today to do so (paragraph 4 of this discussion). However in that same paragraph...I noted the computer models haven't handled the upper wind evolution that well either....

So I am waiting for the surface obs in S FL to respond. If the wind directions/pressure measurements show a surface spin developing...then yeah we've got tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise we don't.
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1031. nigel20
Quoting hydrus:
June-23,1995, We had 15.50 inches of rain in nine hours. Was a really bad day for folks in Charlotte and Desoto counties.

What's up hydrus?

An early look at the SAL
Member Since: 06-11-10 Posts: 11 Comments: 7874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.