NHC director Bill Proenza under fire
New National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza is in hot water for his outspoken criticism of his bosses, according to Miami Herald stories published in the past few days. The acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin, visited his office in Miami Friday and handed him a three-page letter of reprimand. Proenza shared the contents of the letter with his staff and the media, a pretty gutsy move for a guy just appointed to the job. However, Proenza's boss, Ms. Glackin, is on the job for just a few more months--on September 2, Jack Hayes takes over as boss of the National Weather Service. Proenza can probably get away with his criticism of his bosses while there a major shake up at the top. See the View From the Surface blog this week for further speculations, and for any follow-up articles that might be published on this topic.
Figure 1. The NASA QuikSCAT satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite?
Proenza has been particularly outspoken in his desire to see a replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite, which measures surface winds over remote ocean areas, and has been credited with improving 72-hour hurricane track forecasts by 16%. His comments may be having an effect. On May 24, the improved Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting Act of 2007 (Senate Bill S. 1509) was introduced before the Senate. The bill, introduced by Sen. Landrieu, D-LA, and co-sponsored by John Kerry and Florida's two senators, asks for $375 million to build a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite. Bravo to Mr. Proenza for speaking out on this important issue! Some excepts from the bill:
(5) The QuikSCAT satellite was built in just 12 months and was launched with a 3-year design life, but continues to perform per specifications, with its backup transmitter, as it enters into its 8th year--5 years past its projected lifespan.
(6) The QuikSCAT satellite provides daily coverage of 90 percent of the world's oceans, and its data has been a vital contribution to National Weather Service forecasts and warnings over water since 2000.
(7) Despite its continuing performance, the QuikSCAT satellite is well beyond its expected design life and a replacement is urgently needed because, according to the National Hurricane Center, without the QuikSCAT satellite--
(A) hurricane forecasting would be 16 percent less accurate 72 hours before hurricane landfall and 10 percent less accurate 48 hours before hurricane landfall resulting in--
(i) with a 16 percent loss of accuracy at 72 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 197 miles to 228 miles on average; and
(ii) with a 10 percent loss of accuracy at 48 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 136 miles to 150 miles on average; and
(B) greater inaccuracy of this type would lead to more `false alarm' evacuations along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast and decrease the possibility of impacted populations sufficiently heeding mandatory evacuations.
The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and awaits consideration there. The Chair of that committee is Senator Inouye from hurricane-prone Hawaii, so the bill has a decent chance of making it out of committee to the Senate floor. If your senator is on the committee, please write them to let them know what you think about the bill:
Democrats:
Chairman Daniel K. Inouye (HI)
John D. Rockefeller, IV (WV)
John F. Kerry (MA)
Byron L. Dorgan (ND)
Barbara Boxer (CA)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Maria Cantwell (WA)
Frank R. Lautenberg (NJ)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Thomas Carper (DE)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Republicans:
Vice Chairman Ted Stevens (AK)
John McCain (AZ)
Trent Lott (MS)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)
Olympia J. Snowe (ME)
Gordon H. Smith (OR)
John Ensign (NV)
John E. Sununu (NH)
Jim DeMint (SC)
David Vitter (LA)
John Thune (SD)
There is no activity in the tropical Atlantic worth mentioning, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development over the coming week. I'll have a new blog on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I do think we will a season with 10-13 named systems but the all important issue is whether there going to impact land.I do think steering currents right now are on our side with front after front coming down but will it continue in the coming months is something that is unknown.
Keep in mind 1992 had only 7 named systems and turned to be one of the worst hurricanes seasons in U.S. history.Adrian
(Numbers predicted are not important)
Great Point Adrian! After being through Andrew I don't recall looking back at the season of 1992 and say geez you know it was not an active season, we had 7 systems, but I lost my roof and home but it was only one Cat 5 hurricane, so its all good. Look at strength and quality not numbers, anyone who went through Andrew would feel that way.
can we STOP fighting overe if it going to be a active Atlantic hurricane season or not Please we been fighting overe this for 3 to 4 days now and this is geting vary old now so could we this STOP and move too some in new Please thank you
evere time i come on her you all are fighting about if this will be active Atlantic hurricane season or not whats this drop it and what and see it may be or it may not be so right now it a wait and see right now so what drop this Please
Thanks for the great Blog ... I just posted a comment
Patrap must be inundated right now...
If that keeps up, we will not have a lot of Atlantic activity.
It's one nasty storm and it's pounding OK right now.
Looks severe from where I sit !
I wish I could donate some of this rain to Lake Okeechobee
good night all
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 9:40 PM CDT on June 19, 2007
... Significant weather advisory...
This significant weather advisory is for Oklahoma County.
An area of strong thunderstorms was located over eastern Kingfisher
County... moving southeast at 15 mph. A gust front that was
spreading out ahead of the thunderstorms will be moving into
northwest Oklahoma County... including portions of Oklahoma City and
Edmond. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible across northwest
Oklahoma County.
Because they don't want it to. Ever since 2005, people are scared to death of a tropical cyclone. Every tropical cyclone threat should be taken "serious", but not every season will be 2005, and NOT every season will be like 2006 either. So there has been some cooling of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic? Big whoop. Who cares.
Conditions CHANGE over time. They don't stay the same. SSTs will warm back up, give them a chance. Not everything is going to be the way WE want it to be with weather. Weather changes, and WE don't control it whatsoever. So June has been inactive, huh? Hardly. Barry developed on June 1, and Chantal half developed with 93L and 94L. Andrea formed in early May. Need I say more?
It could turn out inactive, it could turn out active. STOP making speculations based on WISHCASTING. That doesn't, and won't work with weather. That's all I have to say. June's always inactive anyway, who cares?
shear has decreased pretty dramatically over all of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf as a whole in just the past few days
and the ITCZ very rarely stays that far south, it is where it is normally supposed to be for June, then moves further north as the season moves on
Large area of dust approaching the Antillies JP! It actually stretches halfway into Africa.
Chris and Ernesto tracks, IF (IF being keyword) this year were to be like 2006 with troughing, are STILL possible. You can't just turn your eyes off of a season that has BARELY started. It's not even July yet... Sheesh. And most July's only have 1-2 storms anyway...
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