SavannahStorm's Blog
Purely Mathematical 2009 Atlantic Season Prediction, Part 2
Posted by: SavannahStorm, 22:03 GMT 15. Červen 2009 +1
In my first post, I gave my prediction of 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes for the 2009 season. Here is my methodology and how I came up with those numbers.

Let me once again give my disclaimer on the problems with using statistical climatology. Climatology merely tells us how weather has reacted to certain situations in the past, but it will not necessarily tell us what will happen in every instance. However, we can get a good idea of how tropical systems form under certain conditions.

With that said, I can use the research and analysis from my first project as a framework to create some other models. In this portion, I will focus on where, statistically, the 7 hurricanes should emerge from. By that I mean my purpose is to predict the areas of genesis for Atlantic hurricanes, using the last 30 years of seasons as my baseline. Once again, I am focusing only on hurricanes, not on all tropical development.

Here's how I did it: first, I broke the tropical Atlantic into 4 "Areas of Genesis": Cape Verde, Gulf of Mexico, East Coast/Mid Atlantic, and Caribbean/Bahamas. These areas seemed the most logical, since the circumstances which give rise to tropical systems in each area are similar. Cape Verde storms quickly develop into depressions from tropical waves before they reach the Lesser Antilles. East Coast and Mid Atlantic storms are usually spawned from the tail ends of cold fronts. Gulf of Mexico systems typically form either from a remnant MCS or a cut-off low. Systems forming in the Caribbean or Bahamas typically spawn from tropical waves which didn't have enough convective energy to close until they reach the hot waters of the Loop Current/Gulf Stream.

After researching the genesis point of every hurricane in the last 30 years (whew, what a chore), I have come up with a good idea of where tropical systems tend to come from. I then compared that to historical ENSO phase data, and came up with a statistical model of where hurricanes come from under certain conditions.


Deep El Nino Event-
Gulf Genesis- 0.29
Cape Verde- 1.86
East Coast/ Mid Atl- 1.29
Caribbean/Bahamas- 0.57

Light/Emerging Nino Event-
Gulf Genesis- 0.40
Cape Verde- 2.40
East Coast/Mid Atl- 2.40
Caribbean/Bahamas- 0.60

Neutral Phase-
Gulf Genesis- 0.67
Cape Verde- 3.17
East Coast/Mid Atl- 1.58
Caribbean/Bahamas- 2.17

La Nina Event-
Gulf Genesis- 1.17
Cape Verde- 2.83
East Coast/Mid Atl- 1.83
Caribbean/Bahamas- 1.33


What do these numbers mean? Here's how to read them:

In an average year during a Deep El Nino Event, there is a 29% chance at least 1 hurricane will form in the Gulf of Mexico. However, during an average Neutral phase year, there is a 67% chance at least 1 hurricane will form in the GOM. During an average La Nina year, at least 1 hurricane will form and possibly another.

This data gives us some interesting numbers about where hurricanes form during certain conditions in an ENSO phase.

For example: hurricanes are 4 times more likely to spawn in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico during a neutral year than during a deep El Nino event. That is a pretty staggering statistic.



So what does that mean for this year? As in my initial analysis, I am going to categorize this season as a blend between a neutral and an emerging El Nino phase. I already predicted 7 hurricanes for this season, but where will they come from?

Using my model, I believe there is a 54% chance a hurricane will form in the Gulf of Mexico, 3 hurricanes will be Cape Verde systems, 2 hurricanes will be East Coast/Mid Atlantic spawning systems, and 1 hurricane will form in the Caribbean or Bahamas, with a 38% chance of a 2nd.

So the final tally is:

3 Cape Verde
2 East Coast/Mid Atlantic
1 Caribbean/Bahamas
1 either Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean

Let's see how my analysis plays out!

Thanks for bearing with me!
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A Purely Mathematical Atlantic Season 2009 Prediction
Posted by: SavannahStorm, 07:06 GMT 14. Červen 2009 +2
2009 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonClimatology merely tells us how weather has reacted to certain situations in the past, but it will not necessarily tell us what will happen in every instance, though. However, we can get a good idea of how tropical systems form under certain conditions. With this in mind, here is how I have come up with my 2009 season prediction.This is a purely mathematical system I have come up with which focuses mainly on ENSO conditions during the...
Updated: 03:12 GMT 15. Červen 2009   Permalink | A A A
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E. Coast Marine Fishing Forecast
Posted by: SavannahStorm, 16:57 GMT 23. Září 2008 +0
Week of Tuesday, September 23, 2008Abbreviated ForecastDue to time restrictions, only an abbreviated forecast this week. The synopsis is much the same, though, for the entire East Coast. A strong cold front off the eastern seaboard is already building large swells and strong NE winds. The system will become cutoff in the next day or two and become an extratropical or subtropical system. The tropical invest 93L currently over the Dominican Republic will begin to a...
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E. Coast Marine Fishing Forecast
Posted by: SavannahStorm, 15:51 GMT 16. Září 2008 +0
Through Sunday, September 21, 2008The dominant feature on the East Coast is a stalled low pressure front over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast. Showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible from Delaware through Georgia through Thursday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be likely for South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida through the week. Approaching Friday, the front will begin to slide up the East Coast, bringing rain and wind to the North...
Updated: 19:41 GMT 16. Září 2008   Permalink | A A A
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E. Coast Marine Fishing Forecast
Posted by: SavannahStorm, 16:00 GMT 9. Září 2008 +0
Through Sunday, September 14, 2008The dominant feature on the East Coast is a vigorous storm front that is loosely associated with the remnants of Hanna. This will create light summer Nor-easter conditions into Wednesday with possible severe thunderstorms, subsiding by Thursday afternoon for most of the upper East Coast. Farther south, Hurricane Ike will bring strong offshore winds to Florida and the Gulf Coast. Forecast is highly dependent upon the speed and trac...
Updated: 16:47 GMT 9. Září 2008   Permalink | A A A
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