000
acus01 kwns 221247
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 221244
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Valid 221300z - 231200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Tennessee Valley
northeastward into New England...
Morning water vapor loops show an upper low over IA/MN...with
several well-defined vorticity maxima rotating around the low into
the Ohio Valley. Ahead of these features...ample low level moisture
is in place and early satellite images show mostly clear skies
across parts of OH/WV/PA/NY. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are forecast today over much of the Tennessee/Ohio Valley
region.
..OH into New England...
Multiple model solutions suggest substantial destabilization will
occur over this region today. Models also show pronounced
convective coverage through the afternoon. Given rather strong
westerly flow aloft and moderate cape values...the potential will
exist for a clustering of severe weather reports across this area.
Thus have upgraded the region to 30 percent hail and wind threats.
..TN/Ohio valleys...
Numerous thunderstorms have affected parts of MS/Alabama overnight.
These storms have reduced the southerly low level inflow into the Tennessee
Valley. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in
this region later this afternoon...but it appears the coverage of
storms from Tennessee northward into western Ohio/WV will be rather sparse..
therefore will maintain the slight risk designation for this region
but not include it in the 30 percent upgrade.
.Hart/leitman.. 05/22/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 220441
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 220441
alz000-msz000-laz000-220545-
Mesoscale discussion 0767
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Areas affected...central la / central and north-central MS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...
Valid 220441z - 220545z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209
continues.
Summary...pockets of strong to marginally severe wind gusts will
likely pose an isolated wind damage threat the next couple of hours
in places where the squall line exhibits a more eastward component to its
motion.
Discussion...subjective mesoanalysis shows an arcing gust front/cold
pool located over northestern MS where temperatures are around 70 with lower 60s
dewpoints. South of this boundary...temperatures in the middle 70s and
dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s-70 degree f characterize a more
unstable airmass --- potentially more conducive for wind gusts to
reach the surface. The qlcs is advancing towards the kdgx radar at
34 knots and inbound velocities show upwards of 40-50 kts at 1500 above ground level.
Additionally...ktvr observed a 40 knots wind gust during the past hour.
In summary...the region south of the outflow boundary from north-central
MS into southwestern MS --where the greatest eastward component to the qlcs
motion is located-- will remain the favored area for pockets of
35-50 knots wind gusts capable of isolated wind damage.
.Smith.. 05/22/2013
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...bmx...Meg...Jan...lix...
Latitude...Lon 33708831 33728940 32039099 31579177 31279106 31498969
32558874 33298813 33708831
